The core is military, economy, carrying on Big problem of North Korea

On February 24, the spokesman of North Korea ' the technical committee of cosmic space ' gives a speech in Pyongyang, show North Korea is spending the launching site of the satellite of East China Sea of Taiwan prefecture in one of the north of the salty mirror, install ' two such as Milk Way ' carrier rocket, plan, launch ' the 2nd such as star such as brightness ' test the communications satellite. Because the hearsay that North Korea will fire the long-range missile for adjustment has already aroused a pubic clamour, launch an artificial satellite and science and technology of guided missile originally communicate ' In 1998 North Korea said too it was a satellite while firing the first guided missile of big Pu hole for adjustment) So this one words, cause world to be generally deeply concerned at once.

Careful bunches of incidents of observing Northeast Asia recently, can feel there is something in the wind.

January 17, North Korea army Headquarters of the General Staff say, enter in an all-round way battling with the state to Korea S.. On January 30, North Korea ' the peaceful reunification committee in the motherland ' issues ' organ's statement ', tear up it with all agreements that Korea S. signs.

At the beginning of February, seeing that North Korea may launch the guided missile, Secretary-General of the United Nations Pan JiWen who the S.Korean foreign minister comes from plans to send the special envoy to enter North Korea to understand the state, but North Korea of the quilt is unsuitable to refuse with the opportunity. In February, S.Korean information unit points out, Kim Jong-il shifts a group of high-ranking military officers: Labour Party of hardliner fight minister Wu gram tabulate and is transferred to the vice chairman of the National Defence Council, the trusted subordinate of Kim Jong-il takes the post as military force ministers of people in money Yongchun, hold tight the military again. Korea S. publishes the white paper of the national defence on February 23, show North Korea has already finished the intermediate range missile to dispose, and the military number of people is expanded to 1,200,000. The situation of Korea Peninsula is getting tight.

Except militarying confront each other, North Korea changes too politically. Should hold last autumn but supreme delegates to the meeting of people postponing it were elected, North Korea claims to hold on March 8. This kind of organization is a rubber-stamp, needn't originally especially take notice of, but everybody keeps a close eye on three son Jin ZhengYun of Kim Jong-il's this time, what will predicted in the information unit of Beijing made a seat at the meeting. If really like this, the situation will be more obvious that the cloud of Nintaus carries on.

North Korea power inherit issue is Northeast Asian situation unsettled possible parameter too. The new inheritor probably makes a desperate move in order to consolidate power. So Sheila of American Secretary of State stamen Asia trip not long ago, point out North Korea power carry on issue deserve concern especially too.

Take a broad view of these incidents, can find North Korea raises the tense situation of Northeast Asia sedulously, first, bring government's of Palestinian horse of Europe attention possibly, will mention the priority of the Korean question up; Another take the place of, carry on overall arrangement, steady internal situation just. The question of North Korea, summing up is three major topics: The core is military, economy, carrying on.

It happened that these 3 topics are the challenge that Kim Jong-il faces too. The question expert of western North Korea pointed out, Kim Jong-il inherited in 1994 since his father Jin Richeng became the top leader of North Korea, all 3 problems have not been handled well above. The core is military ' It is a security question in North Korea) And has not brought the security; The economic reform is a dabbler too, can't study the reform and opening-up of China; The question is to make the internal situation tight mysteriously even more to carry on.

If Kim Jong-il can hold platform at once, bar of Europe, release well-meaning moment to North Korea, improve it with the American relation, the safe and economic question may be relieved. There are scholars to point out, in back Kim Jong-il times, the situation of North Korea can't be examined still more too in this side of U.S.A.. Say Secretary of Defences former human relations Kim Jong-il we at least then ' the unable to understand but person know relatively ' (a known unknown) ,So should take the advantage that he is still on the throne and adjust the relation of North Korea.

U.S.A. make preparation to adjust policy only at present, Sheila to express the concern Japenese that North Korea kidnap stamen, claim not to sacrifice their interests; Show in Seoul too, if North Korea does not resume talking with Korea S., it is impossible to improve ng and American relation. She so as to let Korea S. rest assured, but require North Korea to observe and abandon cores to promise, in order to exchange the callout of the peaceful protocol and come to nothing.

As for the transmission of the satellite or guided missile, the end catalyzes the change of the U.S.-DPRK relation, upset this overall situation? Still remain to be seen.