Why does Vietnam dare not to take the protest of China seriously?

Philippine Senate and House of Representatives classify some islands and reefs of island of Huangyan and the Nansha Islands as Philippines " affiliated island " through the base-line bill in the territorial waters formally on February 17 ,Become the law formally after this bill will be signed by president Arroyo. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs puts forward stern protest to Philippine for this. Graceful nguktrum, senator of Philippine, work Sas say 19 day: "Don't take the protest of China seriously very much. " One requirement anonymous high-ranking official, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Philippine, answer Philippine " ask newspaper of asking etc. " until " whether battle of Nansha can lead to the fact the Sino-Philippines war " Say hour: "Can think by I, guess China can make what move early now. "

Philippine classifying some islands and reefs of island of Huangyan and the Nansha Islands as Philippines on a grand scale " The affiliated island " ,Vietnamese authorities have not not only looked on the sovereignty regarding islands and reefs of the South China Sea of China as the same thing, send marine corps to the Nansha Islands clear-cutly directly. " liberate the newspaper in Saigon " reveals on February 4, Vietnamese authorities begin from the beginning of of 2009, use the navy HQ936 naval vessel, will count hundred and watch over the member of marine corps of islands and reefs to send to the fine jade reef in the Nansha Islands. Only more than 600 soldiers garrisoned in Nansha in Vietnam at the beginning of the 1990s of last century, nowadays garrisoned the number of people and up to 2020. " Saigon Liberation Daily " reporter describe, say Joan island, B of reef, look from afar as " firm super fort " ,Joan island, A of reef, and C island respectively from B 5-6 of island, form, rest on tendency of corner.

No matter East China Sea, or the South China Sea, the surrounding countries have been adopting the policy of nibbling at another country's territory all the time, cause the actual control power of most islands to other country hands. In recent years, China, on the question of sovereign right of the South China Sea, " suspend dispute, jointly develop " that is put forward Principle,it lay aside dispute last " develop jointly " Advantage,instead quilt other country seize the chance it scrounge. The South China Sea therefore surrounding countries will occupy the territory of China, from to disclosing occupying furtively, even through legislating directly as Philippine, achieve the goal that the legal principle occupies. Why countries such as Philippine, Vietnam etc., in involving encroaching on anything so great of sovereignty of other country, the ones that dare easily " Don't take the protest of China seriously very much " ? Worth compatriots' thinking deeply about.

First of all, these countries have already studied the diplomatic tactics of China very completely. Countries such as Vietnam,etc. dare to make an issue of the South China Sea, some analysts think that there is figure of a certain big country, I think this suffused with common faulting of big country typical. Even with supporting without the support of big country, the surrounding countries of the South China Sea, have already made a fuss about starting on the islands and reefs of the South China Sea. Because they are very clear, the serious follow-up exists in the diplomatic tactics of China to support the insufficient drawback, protest only oral to protest as time passes, such a protest don't say other countries take seriously, even if this people in China are all regards the protests of the authorities as the laughing stock and helpless act.

Secondly, Chinese using carefully to military force, there is not worry to occupy the South China Sea for these countries. This question wants two respects to look, first, great majority of domestic people think Chinese naval strength still unable to reach the capability which safeguard the sovereignty of the South China Sea, then hesitate to fight. I change, look in this way, according to angle that the military affairs frighten, so long as China dare, punish a few islands where the capability can be extended to first as a warning to others, can well frighten other country deflect mind at sea in the south. It lie in key dare with dare,not always fear by pieces of fear foot, can have had youed taken these countries seriously either naturally.

Third, it is short of the ability to accuse of the overall situation, lead to the fact other country will not take you seriously either that on the senior level. China, in the foreign contacts, it is " face " that value very much ,And does not pay attention to reality. This " face " Caught the foot China's " face " by some countries, give ,Utilize " Face " Extort the benefit of China ruthlessly. To on the European affairs, often eat the losing of in this respect. " suspend dispute, jointly develop " It is a typical face project, reflect the self-confidence in diplomacy on the senior level and is short of the ones that accused of ability exactly. If there is firm confidence, who suspends dispute for you, with whom to go to jointly develop?

Fourth, the domestic separatist forces perplex Chinese authorities, is the reason why China hesitates to sell. It is domestic people think it is hesitate to move forward in the South China Sea issue government,is it alone in Taiwan independence, boundary and independence of Tibet,etc. due to the puzzlements of forces. Even a lot of people call out and recover Taiwan, then solve the South China Sea. Whom I think of straight gentleman in the Jiang that year " Pacify the interior before resisting foreign aggression " ,It enter into " would rather to thieves other " too now we,will not house slave " Mistaken idea? We want to set up defences in separatist forces, can the other thief stealing our territory be in order to give lenient treatment? If only with this reason, indulge countries such as Vietnam,etc. nibbling to the South China Sea, if Mr. Chiang Kai-shek knows under the spring, will sigh with deep feeling too, the speech of that year, nowadays someone implements better than I!

Fifth, countries such as Vietnam,etc. hold and get nationalism, must explain people to some extent. Small countries of Southeast Asia such as Vietnam,etc., there are crises in once the political situation in the country, always provoke some focus incidents, shift people's sight ' It is estimated that this method is that founder's China learns from cutting into a mountain) . But it is a double-edged sword to hold and get nationalism, if always provoke the enthusiasm of nationalism on some disputes, it is implemented in fact but the authorities have not gone, people will lose enthusiasm gradually conversely, even complain in the authorities, initiate greater contradiction. The question of the South China Sea, has been spiritual Viagra to stimulate Vietnamese nationalism all the time, Vietnamese government is very clear that takes the question of the South China Sea to provoke the national hatred between China and Vietnam, if there are substantive acts in the South China Sea in Vietnamese authorities, people will be discontended with authorities. The authorities are in order to meet people's national enthusiasm, dare to make a desperate move on the question of the South China Sea. This is one's own main reason why countries such as Vietnam,etc. do not take China seriously too.

Its six, the enticement of the economic benefits, is the motive force that these countries nibble the islands and reefs of the South China Sea. Take Vietnam as an example, petroleum that will be dragged for from the South China Sea in 2008 and natural gas not only satisfy the domestic demands, still export over 1 million tons. Country's economic base such as Vietnam are weak, there are such big resources of one before eyes, so long as Chinese authorities do not set out military strength to interfere, any protests only vanish. It is to show due respect for your feeling to take you seriously; Do not take you seriously, it is the existence of ignoring you at all.

Vietnam invests a huge sum of money, directs against the islands and reefs of the South China Sea, 11 naval bases such as it is general to construct with Wanhua, silking, swan's base, arrange inside, Ann abundant, grams of,etc. 15 air base central stereoscopic depth sea sky base group. Under the jurisdiction of 370 airman 13 Su - 27 and 4 Su of teacher, air force of Vietnamese, - 30 fighter plane, it is Vietnamese air force that fight for Nansha sea area" key fighting capacity " of air supremacy ,It costs 3,800 million dollars for 17 fighter planes bought to deploy the administration in the bright air base of the fence, have formed the fight ability of covering the greater part sea area of Nansha of over 1500 kilometers in radius. Nansha the south majestic airport, airport of island and island of Changsha complete in succession 2004, 2005, Vietnamese air force win Nansha advance airport from then on, large quantities of personnel equip and pass with the ammunition goods and materials " The air corridor " Transport to Nansha continually. (" liberate the newspaper in Saigon " for the source of this section of materials)

China as before on the question of the South China Sea adopts the appeasement policy, leave these countries to be malfeasant, expect others and you to " jointly develop " ,Tantamount to the idea which cannot be realized at all. Once countries such as Vietnam,etc. stand firm on the islands and reefs of the South China Sea, don't say that take the protest of China seriously, even if adopt the military attack, finally who will win the prize, it is still too difficult to expect. The question of the South China Sea, has already forced China to the corner, has had no way to retreat. Expect until China touched it strong that day, it is estimated that others' wings have been already hard too. Under the reflection of conscience the bright sword instead of waiting for others, it would be better.