Some experts regard China as rescuing the city main fact of U.S.A. and even the world, so long as construct with the assistance in Beijing, take thousand billion note money its on broken World Bank system, like holding holding and blocking furiously on ability! What is more: So long as Beijing refuses to buy more American national debts, may destroy rescuing the city plan of U.S.A.? People these talk about Chinese the tone when the foreign exchange reserve come on, think, seem China hold and gather around Kingsoft, do as one pleases!
Similar splashing rising oneself, let people unset, expect to be ripe and worrying. Quite right, 1,900 billion U.S. dollars are really large figures. Stand up by dollar of bank note piles with face amount, so many money can superpose, get half the from their from the moon. But only because 1,900 billion dollars are large figures, do not mean China can transfer.
The foreign exchange reserve is not the cash. The foreign exchange reserve is not usually used for investing in and repaying maximizing with pursuing, but by a mobile form exists the most safely and mosting - -The typical one is the American government bond. Even conservative analyst can think Mainland need dollar of current assetses most. According to possible most prudent standard, Beijing is in order to guarantee still about 500 billion dollars very left after the flowability of government bond.
Some reviewers think, these extra money should be used for supporting the world financial system of tottering. Investigate you can find the proposition really ignorant and not worth choosing carefully even more. From beginning two years ago, Beijing attempted to be diversified to some foreign exchange reserves, the Chinese investment company that has set up 200 billion dollars, increase and reciprocate by assets with larger investment risk. But the result is unsatisfactory.
So, have no intention through selling American treasury bill and other government bonds held in Beijing, to buy the assets of the bank gotten into hot water. Just as inland foreign exchange reserve administrator found, this kind of move is full of risks. Regard foreign government as intermediary take safe much, and this make at present of Beijing: Lend the money to the foreign government through buying bonds, enable the latter to give the national bank note money. Perhaps potential investment repayment is relatively small, but the risk is undoubtedly much lower. If hope the foreign exchange reserve of Beijing is used for supporting the global financial system, that is unrealistic, afraid the city scheme of rescuing that will ruin Washington is unrealistic too that China reduces the American government bond. Though the U.S. government needs to borrow a lot of money to think it rescued market plan and provided with funds, though China American one big buyer of bond, China buy American treasury bill as propagate to think indispensable report usually?
At present, only because are used to wasteful ordinary Americans, is declined by the market of assets and attacked, will have to lack consumption, save more now, will prepare against and rebuild the wealth in the future. Change a kind of simplest statement: Ordinary Americans only need to save 1000 dollars in one year ' Short of eating meal six, seven times outside) --Just 2% of the per capita income - -Can totally replace the role who China acted on the market of American debt. And don't forget American has only 300 million people, (GDP in whole world accounts for 35%, the capital accounts for 58%) And China have nearly 1,400 million people (in whole world GDP account for 5% more, capital account for, exceed but 1%)
Today, from appearing in the newspapers in some latest research paper of research institutions of ministries and commissions of central authorities, verified from the tone changing formally: It is obvious these so-called special home of China is not merely only wastes? Consult: My opinion about expert of China, what the mankind sucked finally will be the one's own sighing
Perhaps the unilateral situation that rose of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve has already been stopped, there are actually few foreign exchange reserves that can be drawn on flexibly at present. Remove American bond and central authorities adjust and control exchange rate and what trade need store, China whom reality can draw on store over 500 billion outside at present. And in view of this kind at present of China and the United States " As dependent on each other as lips and teeth " Relation,change once U.S.A. environments macroscopical,face China by foreign currency flowability insufficient pressure probably.
Affair committee's vice-president and king of Central Bank department are more candid when relying on oneself recently: Remove the U.S. dollar bond of 1,200 billion, store and also remain less than 800 billion dollars outside. Central Bank need, reserve, store partly also generally speaking, in order to keep 3 import necessary fund while being about month, store the scale probably in 400 billion to 500 billion dollars outside this part, and then deduct currency conversion, currency and exchange foreign exchange allowances such as agreements,etc., the one left in fact can draw on just about 300 billion dollars of foreign exchange reserve.
China gold company chief economist Kazakhstan continue, engrave, point out because of favorable balance of foreign trade and FDI (foreign businessman's direct investment) further too Reduction and European dollar of flowing into devalue and bond value shrink and bring investment and exchange loss, the foreign exchange reserve may be reduced by 30 billion dollars at least from January to February this year, how will also next reduce, it's hard to tell.
This does not shoot at random definitely, according to " China's international investment position form " at the end of the year of 2007 which State Statistics Bureau announces, in 2007, Chinese Government will have foreign exchange reserve of 1,528,200 million dollars, the foreign assets in China are 12,664 dollars at the same time. It is obvious that really belongs to Chinese's own foreign exchange reserve share probably in more than 300 billion dollars. And at the end of 2007, the overseas assets total value of China is 1,012,600 million dollars, to the foreign assets in China are 244,800 million fewer dollars. In addition, the ones that need pointing out are: Foreign currency system and Japan of China, American-European countries are different. The Chinese foreign currency system has determined Chinese Government must print RMB bills in order to purchase foreign currency such as U.S. dollar passively unrestrictedly, in order to maintain the stability of exchange rate of RMB. The result is, only the bank " counter " Foreign currency such as U.S. dollar appear, the bank issues RMB to purchase. Foreign currency such as U.S. dollar bought in form the foreign exchange reserve of China. Because it is primary tasks of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve to maintain value of RMB and exchange rate stability. And take on this primary task, the foreign exchange reserve must accord with " security, flowability and preserving value " These three basic demand. Security is first, flowability is second, preserving value or appreciation end. This has determined Chinese Government can't use most foreign exchange reserves for buying the gold, material objects such as petroleum and mineral products,etc.. (Material objects such as gold, petroleum, the mineral products,etc.. First, it was large that the price of these goods and materials fluctuated suitably; Second, these goods and materials can not hold 2,000 billion dollars; Third, these goods and materials do not accord with flowability and security with required foreign exchange reserve. Certainly, U.S. dollar will devalue too. The American national debt does not insure either, but over the past 15 years, the average debt interest of the American national debt is probably about 5.5%, and CPI is about 2.2%. That is to say that the inflation is deducted, the primitive income which invests in the American national debt is still above 3%. And it is free to buy, it is free too to sell off. Buy or throw, all is all by oneself because of " go after profits and advoid disadvantages " Make the choice. Perhaps someone says, take the American national debt and come back to put it in the People's Bank of China, who do you lend to but the question is the foreign currency of the so huge quantity? Lend so high " security, flowability and preserving value " to the U.S. government ? This can read Chinese Government from the other side too " Confidence " Index. Apply what people often say mechanically: At present, U.S. dollar is still in a lot of rotten apples in the world, least rotten that one; The American national debt is still in a lot of rotten tangerines in the world, least rotten that one. Including China " RMB " Or the deputy to the National People's Congress proposes making into " Chinese yuan " . )Consult: Power the east move and disperse, irresistible psychology vainly hope with depression
If say in the face of the world that totters half a year ago, the economist still thinks China should remain the relative light spot in the global dull scene. For instance, the deep and vast great wave of the auspicious silver thinks, " the strength of China can play a role in helping, but not enough to save the world. " Then, today half years later, lag behind in the face of the financial system of China. The consumptive credit is still at primary stage. Although since break into credit and collapse in U.S.A., this seems to be to China's very bad news, but this is really unfavorable to accelerating domestic consumption and stimulating the economic growth in fact. Just as the speech which the Luoping director of Chinese Bank Supervisory Committee made in U.S.A. New York Wall Street: " though know U.S. dollar will devalue, but China will continue buying the American national debt " . Because the security sanctuary of the fund is an American bond, but not gold, not even Japanese government bond or British bond. This one speech, cause the enormous response in every large news network forum immediately, most people are excited, " The traitor " ," The comprador " ," The traitor " Can be heard without end. In fact, director Luo Da's speech accords with Wen Jiabao's relevant speech spirit to the Chinese-funded financial institution. Wen Jiabao says: "It is that China implements an important part in pluralism of foreign exchange reserve to buy the American bond. Whether how much is continued buying, buying, that should be according to the needs of China, according to the requirement with safe foreign currency and preserving value. "
At the beginning of economic crisis, someone western has hoped the shopping of all right catchers of Chinese Americans is fanatic, but half a year later, find out China " domestic demand " soberly Absolutely not the work of one day. It is more unable to let Chinese duplicate Americans' method at present. Moreover, does the foreign exchange reserve of China reduce pressure in any case? Under the existing economic order, are U.S. dollar and American national debt still choices not getting around? No matter Chinese media how U.S.A. can't bear general, even U.S. dollar go bankrupt? Fortunately it is on the senior level and very sober that China makes policy: Now and future that can see, the comprehensive strength and economic vigor of U.S.A. will be still that the world will be the strongest, U.S.A. will not collapse, the position of U.S. dollar will not waver, is the American national debt still safe and reliable? Speak it very much, if U.S. dollar or U.S.A. collapses at this time, says that means the whole world accounts for 58% capital to collapse, before collapsing in U.S. dollar or U.S.A., I wonder how many countries 's currency or government will collapse in advance, the politics of the world will be often more turbulent, perhaps may still further aggravate the capital and flow into U.S.A.? Further consolidate U.S. dollar or American financial status? Because people are concerned security preferentially at this time, flowability, preserve value or appreciation can be ignored, it is minimum to even omit to losses. So, steady U.S.A. is useful to world, turbulent world is favorable to U.S.A.. This is that U.S.A. stabilizes oneself in the world economic crisis preferentially too, no matter the turbulent reason in the world? (during World War II is an example) Talk about some countries, the area or interest groups in the contradiction of propaganda and fact, it is exactly theirs " Hope for " Or " painful topic " . Just like China's rich theory, if one on average or in living out one's life in retirement, medical treatment and children person who educate social security with arbitrary one and a half item of divided by what does it include or have difference with Africa? Perhaps the only effective one is " With the strength of country " ? Consult: China and the United States compare, rescue people and save the nation with collecting people's strength with the strength of country.
This was in the past ten years too, U.S.A.'s crazy consumption SUV and luxurious house, China exported hard, the deposit deposit again, the foreign exchange reserve which has gathered 2,000 billion dollars. From family to enterprises, the domestic deposit of 2007 of China is equivalent to 48.6% that the economy will be produced, and U.S.A. one is only 13.6%. The contrast between the families is more distinct: In 2006, the deposit of the Chinese family is equivalent to 24.7% of the disposable income, and U.S.A. one is only pitiful 0.7%.
A few days ago, director Frank (Paul French) of the Company Access Asia of market research of Britain Point out in the report even more: 7% to 15% of the income tax summation of family deposits rate and China of 24% of China, almost mean the Europeans pay the proportion of taking the income of the community service tax. He thinks Chinese are under the situation with incomplete social system " Levy taxs oneself " ,But this kind of method is not as effective as there is a welfare stating. Because member its any right away comes to in the living out one's life in retirement, house, medical treatment and children's education perhaps even if it is a frugal urban family of China " Poor and underdeveloped " ,Let alone" The vast countryside " .
Frank stimulates the scheme to reserve and expand the fund helped in medical treatment and old age to point out in China's economy, "you are unable to set up national living out one's life in retirement, medical treatment and teaching service overnight. " At present, the whole world all need such a person that talk about house and car, Frank says, ": Rich, have demands to house and car. " (base on the premise that living out one's life in retirement, medical treatment and children educate having social security)
So, we can draw such a conclusion: In realistic cases, depend on degrees of more than 60% country and speech as to one 1,300 million people foreign trade, reality can draw on just China of about 300 billion dollars of foreign exchange reserve, the only poor countries? As to the purpose of saving desperately, that is to say to ensure to some extent in living out one's life in retirement, house, medical treatment and children's education, and any comes to " Poor and underdeveloped " Chinese for speech,is in piece pauper? Finally, " the domestic demand is insufficient " to take advantage of me in the first large country in population of world Origin where? If in the article: U.S.A. is a country that relies on domestic demand to realize the economic growth at all times, and China have 1,300 million people in vain, is the domestic demand insufficient? Have to spur economic growth in reform and opening-up by the foreign trade? Is it utterly absurd for you to say this is not? China of 1,300 million people, besides you yourself, who can support you? Whole world depend on you, say you dump to others, fortunately to your future but one no wonder too, let it be too. Nowadays, no one will discuss unrealistic future more with you at the time of the economic crisis! Unless present China needs in foreign trade, and need or mean in the foreign trade that imports in China, do not mean China exports. In brief, China's huge foreign exchange reserve shrinks and really exists, but the one that just move ahead simultaneously in the world shrinks, otherwise China to the foreign assets in China ' U.S. dollar) Can't bear bearing further! That is to say, if all of foreign capital withdraws from China, in a situation that there is not the sufficient foreign exchange reserve, it is insufficient dealing with too to sell all assets abroad of China, (" security of the foreign currency, flowability and preserving value " Require) Unless " betray one's country " ? Or " bankrupt " ? This why take, maintain huge foreign exchange reserve China ' U.S. dollar) Every one important reason," painful topic " in other words ? Like with Chinese " Save " It come it explain, whose name is in "social system every one under the incomplete situation ' ensure oneself ' " ?
Finally, appraise China president of Central Bank Zhou Xiaochuan should continue and advance the reform of international monetary system to get out of too. The concrete content includes: Strengthen and make sure, promote position and function of special drawing rights (SDR) in mainly storing country's economic financial policy of the issuance of paper money, promote the international monetary system to develop pluralistically steadily inside while being long-term. The final goal of the reform " creates one with breaking off relations, and international reserve currency that can keep the value of money long and steady of sovereign state, thus avoid the currency of credit with sovereign right as the inherent defect of the reserve currency " .
This financial crisis really reveals the international monetary system has already presented the major defect, global economy is fastened on U.S. dollar, equivalent to fasten on the morals trousers belt of American Federal Reserve Committee and U.S. government. Zhou Xiaochuan represents China, only places on International Monetary Fund (IMF) on behalf of the scheme which all dollars holder puts forward Do real special drawing rights (SDR), just to the improvement of the current regulations, do not propose the revolution of the current monetary system, do not exist " End in the era of U.S. dollar " Question. In addition, three big problems deserve the discussion, first, it is the trend of the times to improve International Monetary Fund, but will depend on economic strength and confidence in the currency behind the currency. Second, a European dollar goes through World War II, the currency of credit without sovereignty may be like the resolution which the United Nations made, put sovereignty and human rights into ' Sovereignty and ownership of property) Dispute. Third, improve the far hydroenergy of International Monetary Fund and rescue nearly fire? When being especially utmost urgent?
What deserves to be mentioned is and connect with International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kahn says too, under the global financial crisis, U.S. dollar can continue becoming the discussion of international reserve currency rationally, but it is not big to set up the possibility to reserve currency newly shortly. The reason is as follows:
Reason one: Reserve currency and take shape naturally, does not create artificially. The vitality of the currency not merely depends on the short-term economic situation, depend on the prestige and economic strength with sovereign right even more.
Reason two: U.S.A. and Orgnaization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) There is an agreement - -U.S.A. allow, give OPEC pricing right of petroleum, but OPEC must agree all petroleum trade close and use U.S. dollar. This agreement not only let U.S. dollar truss up the petroleum but also trussed up the whole world because of petroleum at the same time.
Reason three: U.S. dollar form one already " Recessiveness " U.S. dollar system: Capitals from start to finish such as pound sterling and Japanese yen,etc. " Draw near " The U.S. dollar one,if pairs of U.S.A., Britain, Japan, Canada (U.S. dollar system) GDP add always,is it in whole world without being accounted for GDP.
Reason four: No currency at present, including U.S. dollar beyond the system the system is " jointed together " to some extent Can draw challenge U.S. dollar and dominate the position exclusively or bear the responsibility of the international reserve currency.
Reason five: The economic crisis this time will be probably innovated by the industry to adjust finally, and 70% autonomous innovation in the world all concentrate on American hand, so the first position of U.S. dollar will not waver.
Similar splashing rising oneself, let people unset, expect to be ripe and worrying. Quite right, 1,900 billion U.S. dollars are really large figures. Stand up by dollar of bank note piles with face amount, so many money can superpose, get half the from their from the moon. But only because 1,900 billion dollars are large figures, do not mean China can transfer.
The foreign exchange reserve is not the cash. The foreign exchange reserve is not usually used for investing in and repaying maximizing with pursuing, but by a mobile form exists the most safely and mosting - -The typical one is the American government bond. Even conservative analyst can think Mainland need dollar of current assetses most. According to possible most prudent standard, Beijing is in order to guarantee still about 500 billion dollars very left after the flowability of government bond.
Some reviewers think, these extra money should be used for supporting the world financial system of tottering. Investigate you can find the proposition really ignorant and not worth choosing carefully even more. From beginning two years ago, Beijing attempted to be diversified to some foreign exchange reserves, the Chinese investment company that has set up 200 billion dollars, increase and reciprocate by assets with larger investment risk. But the result is unsatisfactory.
So, have no intention through selling American treasury bill and other government bonds held in Beijing, to buy the assets of the bank gotten into hot water. Just as inland foreign exchange reserve administrator found, this kind of move is full of risks. Regard foreign government as intermediary take safe much, and this make at present of Beijing: Lend the money to the foreign government through buying bonds, enable the latter to give the national bank note money. Perhaps potential investment repayment is relatively small, but the risk is undoubtedly much lower. If hope the foreign exchange reserve of Beijing is used for supporting the global financial system, that is unrealistic, afraid the city scheme of rescuing that will ruin Washington is unrealistic too that China reduces the American government bond. Though the U.S. government needs to borrow a lot of money to think it rescued market plan and provided with funds, though China American one big buyer of bond, China buy American treasury bill as propagate to think indispensable report usually?
At present, only because are used to wasteful ordinary Americans, is declined by the market of assets and attacked, will have to lack consumption, save more now, will prepare against and rebuild the wealth in the future. Change a kind of simplest statement: Ordinary Americans only need to save 1000 dollars in one year ' Short of eating meal six, seven times outside) --Just 2% of the per capita income - -Can totally replace the role who China acted on the market of American debt. And don't forget American has only 300 million people, (GDP in whole world accounts for 35%, the capital accounts for 58%) And China have nearly 1,400 million people (in whole world GDP account for 5% more, capital account for, exceed but 1%)
Today, from appearing in the newspapers in some latest research paper of research institutions of ministries and commissions of central authorities, verified from the tone changing formally: It is obvious these so-called special home of China is not merely only wastes? Consult: My opinion about expert of China, what the mankind sucked finally will be the one's own sighing
Perhaps the unilateral situation that rose of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve has already been stopped, there are actually few foreign exchange reserves that can be drawn on flexibly at present. Remove American bond and central authorities adjust and control exchange rate and what trade need store, China whom reality can draw on store over 500 billion outside at present. And in view of this kind at present of China and the United States " As dependent on each other as lips and teeth " Relation,change once U.S.A. environments macroscopical,face China by foreign currency flowability insufficient pressure probably.
Affair committee's vice-president and king of Central Bank department are more candid when relying on oneself recently: Remove the U.S. dollar bond of 1,200 billion, store and also remain less than 800 billion dollars outside. Central Bank need, reserve, store partly also generally speaking, in order to keep 3 import necessary fund while being about month, store the scale probably in 400 billion to 500 billion dollars outside this part, and then deduct currency conversion, currency and exchange foreign exchange allowances such as agreements,etc., the one left in fact can draw on just about 300 billion dollars of foreign exchange reserve.
China gold company chief economist Kazakhstan continue, engrave, point out because of favorable balance of foreign trade and FDI (foreign businessman's direct investment) further too Reduction and European dollar of flowing into devalue and bond value shrink and bring investment and exchange loss, the foreign exchange reserve may be reduced by 30 billion dollars at least from January to February this year, how will also next reduce, it's hard to tell.
This does not shoot at random definitely, according to " China's international investment position form " at the end of the year of 2007 which State Statistics Bureau announces, in 2007, Chinese Government will have foreign exchange reserve of 1,528,200 million dollars, the foreign assets in China are 12,664 dollars at the same time. It is obvious that really belongs to Chinese's own foreign exchange reserve share probably in more than 300 billion dollars. And at the end of 2007, the overseas assets total value of China is 1,012,600 million dollars, to the foreign assets in China are 244,800 million fewer dollars. In addition, the ones that need pointing out are: Foreign currency system and Japan of China, American-European countries are different. The Chinese foreign currency system has determined Chinese Government must print RMB bills in order to purchase foreign currency such as U.S. dollar passively unrestrictedly, in order to maintain the stability of exchange rate of RMB. The result is, only the bank " counter " Foreign currency such as U.S. dollar appear, the bank issues RMB to purchase. Foreign currency such as U.S. dollar bought in form the foreign exchange reserve of China. Because it is primary tasks of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve to maintain value of RMB and exchange rate stability. And take on this primary task, the foreign exchange reserve must accord with " security, flowability and preserving value " These three basic demand. Security is first, flowability is second, preserving value or appreciation end. This has determined Chinese Government can't use most foreign exchange reserves for buying the gold, material objects such as petroleum and mineral products,etc.. (Material objects such as gold, petroleum, the mineral products,etc.. First, it was large that the price of these goods and materials fluctuated suitably; Second, these goods and materials can not hold 2,000 billion dollars; Third, these goods and materials do not accord with flowability and security with required foreign exchange reserve. Certainly, U.S. dollar will devalue too. The American national debt does not insure either, but over the past 15 years, the average debt interest of the American national debt is probably about 5.5%, and CPI is about 2.2%. That is to say that the inflation is deducted, the primitive income which invests in the American national debt is still above 3%. And it is free to buy, it is free too to sell off. Buy or throw, all is all by oneself because of " go after profits and advoid disadvantages " Make the choice. Perhaps someone says, take the American national debt and come back to put it in the People's Bank of China, who do you lend to but the question is the foreign currency of the so huge quantity? Lend so high " security, flowability and preserving value " to the U.S. government ? This can read Chinese Government from the other side too " Confidence " Index. Apply what people often say mechanically: At present, U.S. dollar is still in a lot of rotten apples in the world, least rotten that one; The American national debt is still in a lot of rotten tangerines in the world, least rotten that one. Including China " RMB " Or the deputy to the National People's Congress proposes making into " Chinese yuan " . )Consult: Power the east move and disperse, irresistible psychology vainly hope with depression
If say in the face of the world that totters half a year ago, the economist still thinks China should remain the relative light spot in the global dull scene. For instance, the deep and vast great wave of the auspicious silver thinks, " the strength of China can play a role in helping, but not enough to save the world. " Then, today half years later, lag behind in the face of the financial system of China. The consumptive credit is still at primary stage. Although since break into credit and collapse in U.S.A., this seems to be to China's very bad news, but this is really unfavorable to accelerating domestic consumption and stimulating the economic growth in fact. Just as the speech which the Luoping director of Chinese Bank Supervisory Committee made in U.S.A. New York Wall Street: " though know U.S. dollar will devalue, but China will continue buying the American national debt " . Because the security sanctuary of the fund is an American bond, but not gold, not even Japanese government bond or British bond. This one speech, cause the enormous response in every large news network forum immediately, most people are excited, " The traitor " ," The comprador " ," The traitor " Can be heard without end. In fact, director Luo Da's speech accords with Wen Jiabao's relevant speech spirit to the Chinese-funded financial institution. Wen Jiabao says: "It is that China implements an important part in pluralism of foreign exchange reserve to buy the American bond. Whether how much is continued buying, buying, that should be according to the needs of China, according to the requirement with safe foreign currency and preserving value. "
At the beginning of economic crisis, someone western has hoped the shopping of all right catchers of Chinese Americans is fanatic, but half a year later, find out China " domestic demand " soberly Absolutely not the work of one day. It is more unable to let Chinese duplicate Americans' method at present. Moreover, does the foreign exchange reserve of China reduce pressure in any case? Under the existing economic order, are U.S. dollar and American national debt still choices not getting around? No matter Chinese media how U.S.A. can't bear general, even U.S. dollar go bankrupt? Fortunately it is on the senior level and very sober that China makes policy: Now and future that can see, the comprehensive strength and economic vigor of U.S.A. will be still that the world will be the strongest, U.S.A. will not collapse, the position of U.S. dollar will not waver, is the American national debt still safe and reliable? Speak it very much, if U.S. dollar or U.S.A. collapses at this time, says that means the whole world accounts for 58% capital to collapse, before collapsing in U.S. dollar or U.S.A., I wonder how many countries 's currency or government will collapse in advance, the politics of the world will be often more turbulent, perhaps may still further aggravate the capital and flow into U.S.A.? Further consolidate U.S. dollar or American financial status? Because people are concerned security preferentially at this time, flowability, preserve value or appreciation can be ignored, it is minimum to even omit to losses. So, steady U.S.A. is useful to world, turbulent world is favorable to U.S.A.. This is that U.S.A. stabilizes oneself in the world economic crisis preferentially too, no matter the turbulent reason in the world? (during World War II is an example) Talk about some countries, the area or interest groups in the contradiction of propaganda and fact, it is exactly theirs " Hope for " Or " painful topic " . Just like China's rich theory, if one on average or in living out one's life in retirement, medical treatment and children person who educate social security with arbitrary one and a half item of divided by what does it include or have difference with Africa? Perhaps the only effective one is " With the strength of country " ? Consult: China and the United States compare, rescue people and save the nation with collecting people's strength with the strength of country.
This was in the past ten years too, U.S.A.'s crazy consumption SUV and luxurious house, China exported hard, the deposit deposit again, the foreign exchange reserve which has gathered 2,000 billion dollars. From family to enterprises, the domestic deposit of 2007 of China is equivalent to 48.6% that the economy will be produced, and U.S.A. one is only 13.6%. The contrast between the families is more distinct: In 2006, the deposit of the Chinese family is equivalent to 24.7% of the disposable income, and U.S.A. one is only pitiful 0.7%.
A few days ago, director Frank (Paul French) of the Company Access Asia of market research of Britain Point out in the report even more: 7% to 15% of the income tax summation of family deposits rate and China of 24% of China, almost mean the Europeans pay the proportion of taking the income of the community service tax. He thinks Chinese are under the situation with incomplete social system " Levy taxs oneself " ,But this kind of method is not as effective as there is a welfare stating. Because member its any right away comes to in the living out one's life in retirement, house, medical treatment and children's education perhaps even if it is a frugal urban family of China " Poor and underdeveloped " ,Let alone" The vast countryside " .
Frank stimulates the scheme to reserve and expand the fund helped in medical treatment and old age to point out in China's economy, "you are unable to set up national living out one's life in retirement, medical treatment and teaching service overnight. " At present, the whole world all need such a person that talk about house and car, Frank says, ": Rich, have demands to house and car. " (base on the premise that living out one's life in retirement, medical treatment and children educate having social security)
So, we can draw such a conclusion: In realistic cases, depend on degrees of more than 60% country and speech as to one 1,300 million people foreign trade, reality can draw on just China of about 300 billion dollars of foreign exchange reserve, the only poor countries? As to the purpose of saving desperately, that is to say to ensure to some extent in living out one's life in retirement, house, medical treatment and children's education, and any comes to " Poor and underdeveloped " Chinese for speech,is in piece pauper? Finally, " the domestic demand is insufficient " to take advantage of me in the first large country in population of world Origin where? If in the article: U.S.A. is a country that relies on domestic demand to realize the economic growth at all times, and China have 1,300 million people in vain, is the domestic demand insufficient? Have to spur economic growth in reform and opening-up by the foreign trade? Is it utterly absurd for you to say this is not? China of 1,300 million people, besides you yourself, who can support you? Whole world depend on you, say you dump to others, fortunately to your future but one no wonder too, let it be too. Nowadays, no one will discuss unrealistic future more with you at the time of the economic crisis! Unless present China needs in foreign trade, and need or mean in the foreign trade that imports in China, do not mean China exports. In brief, China's huge foreign exchange reserve shrinks and really exists, but the one that just move ahead simultaneously in the world shrinks, otherwise China to the foreign assets in China ' U.S. dollar) Can't bear bearing further! That is to say, if all of foreign capital withdraws from China, in a situation that there is not the sufficient foreign exchange reserve, it is insufficient dealing with too to sell all assets abroad of China, (" security of the foreign currency, flowability and preserving value " Require) Unless " betray one's country " ? Or " bankrupt " ? This why take, maintain huge foreign exchange reserve China ' U.S. dollar) Every one important reason," painful topic " in other words ? Like with Chinese " Save " It come it explain, whose name is in "social system every one under the incomplete situation ' ensure oneself ' " ?
Finally, appraise China president of Central Bank Zhou Xiaochuan should continue and advance the reform of international monetary system to get out of too. The concrete content includes: Strengthen and make sure, promote position and function of special drawing rights (SDR) in mainly storing country's economic financial policy of the issuance of paper money, promote the international monetary system to develop pluralistically steadily inside while being long-term. The final goal of the reform " creates one with breaking off relations, and international reserve currency that can keep the value of money long and steady of sovereign state, thus avoid the currency of credit with sovereign right as the inherent defect of the reserve currency " .
This financial crisis really reveals the international monetary system has already presented the major defect, global economy is fastened on U.S. dollar, equivalent to fasten on the morals trousers belt of American Federal Reserve Committee and U.S. government. Zhou Xiaochuan represents China, only places on International Monetary Fund (IMF) on behalf of the scheme which all dollars holder puts forward Do real special drawing rights (SDR), just to the improvement of the current regulations, do not propose the revolution of the current monetary system, do not exist " End in the era of U.S. dollar " Question. In addition, three big problems deserve the discussion, first, it is the trend of the times to improve International Monetary Fund, but will depend on economic strength and confidence in the currency behind the currency. Second, a European dollar goes through World War II, the currency of credit without sovereignty may be like the resolution which the United Nations made, put sovereignty and human rights into ' Sovereignty and ownership of property) Dispute. Third, improve the far hydroenergy of International Monetary Fund and rescue nearly fire? When being especially utmost urgent?
What deserves to be mentioned is and connect with International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kahn says too, under the global financial crisis, U.S. dollar can continue becoming the discussion of international reserve currency rationally, but it is not big to set up the possibility to reserve currency newly shortly. The reason is as follows:
Reason one: Reserve currency and take shape naturally, does not create artificially. The vitality of the currency not merely depends on the short-term economic situation, depend on the prestige and economic strength with sovereign right even more.
Reason two: U.S.A. and Orgnaization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) There is an agreement - -U.S.A. allow, give OPEC pricing right of petroleum, but OPEC must agree all petroleum trade close and use U.S. dollar. This agreement not only let U.S. dollar truss up the petroleum but also trussed up the whole world because of petroleum at the same time.
Reason three: U.S. dollar form one already " Recessiveness " U.S. dollar system: Capitals from start to finish such as pound sterling and Japanese yen,etc. " Draw near " The U.S. dollar one,if pairs of U.S.A., Britain, Japan, Canada (U.S. dollar system) GDP add always,is it in whole world without being accounted for GDP.
Reason four: No currency at present, including U.S. dollar beyond the system the system is " jointed together " to some extent Can draw challenge U.S. dollar and dominate the position exclusively or bear the responsibility of the international reserve currency.
Reason five: The economic crisis this time will be probably innovated by the industry to adjust finally, and 70% autonomous innovation in the world all concentrate on American hand, so the first position of U.S. dollar will not waver.
No comments:
Post a Comment