It is to have a daydream to expect the other countries to protect China's benefit

How about does American Federal Reserve Committee succeed

As to world, the best final result is just the stagflation, worse result is the malignant inflation, and may make global economy fall into confusedly

On March 18, American Federal Reserve Committee announces that will buy national debt of 1,250 billion dollars, commercial instruments and mortgage bond. In fact, since the crisis begins, American Federal Reserve Committee has been doing so, already level than the crisis of its balance sheet has looked through 1 time. 3 times that the new plan may make the balance sheet of American Federal Reserve Committee swell before the crisis. American Federal Reserve Committee promises, once economy is powerful enough, or the inflation resumes, it will shrink the balance sheet. However, this kind of expansion trend is so impossible as to turn back. In a situation that other conditions are the same, if the balance sheet of American Federal Reserve Committee swells 2 times instead of 3 times finally, then, debased and half the too U.S. dollars.

However, if other Central Banks cash U.S. dollar and have a appreciation pressure for not allowing the home currency, thus go to print the bank note, then, other currency face the down pressure. It may be that the currency of various countries competitively devalue that global foreign exchange market is balanced, this will make the main economy get deeply stuck in the inflation. I still think, the main road of global economy leads to stagflation. The finance stimulates and inflation, will promote global economy to rebound in the second half of 2009. However, this kind of rebounding is only a false appearance. Global economy will decline again in 2010, till that time, the inflation will begin to dilute the monetary policy and stimulate the economic result.

After American Federal Reserve Committee releases declaring, U.S. dollar drops at the sound, creates the greatest amount of decrease in single week, earning ratio of the national debt and mortgage interest rate drop by a wide margin. Just as American Federal Reserve Committee wishes the response of the market. So long as the market thinks the monetary expansion action of American Federal Reserve Committee is limited, i.e. American Federal Reserve Committee can not print U.S. dollar unrestrictedly, then, the market can fix the price to U.S. dollar again. Following the monetary policy of American Federal Reserve Committee to change too at other assets prices.

The motive of the policy of American Federal Reserve Committee is for stabilizing the price of real estate. So far, through guaranteeing that " poisonous assets " are held With offering the loan to the financial institution gotten into hot water, the attention of American Federal Reserve Committee is to want the steady financial system. Though it has already made some effects, however, this does not have any meaningful contribution to real economy: U.S.A.'s economy worsens continuously, the rate of unemployment of soaring constantly is a clear proof. American Federal Reserve Committee asserts, it must prevent the price of the real estate from dropping, thus hold economy. American real estate trade has already dropped from the summit of 2006 heavily. The stock price dropped the wealth brought shrank to exceed 6,000 billion dollars. Because a large amount of financial products were supported by the price of the real estate, so, the multiplier effect brought is economy and main reason of the financial turmoil that the price of the real estate drops.

Can Gaertner's abacus be sounded

American Ministry of Finance has already released a plan, has determined to buy " poisonous assets " of 1,000 billion dollars from bank gotten into hot water . In this plan, private investors can invest 1 dollar to actually bought " poisonous assets " in the tool of a special use . Meanwhile, the U.S. government will invest 1 dollar to form a complete set. Then, this tool can be assured by the U.S. government, borrow 12 dollars more. This will mean, this new tool can borrow the short debt according to a interest rate, borrow the long debt for ten years according to interest rate of 2.75%. The subsidy of this project, come from the guarantee for debt of 12 dollars of the government actually. Private investors can assure through the debt of the government, will reciprocate and enlarge by 6 times. This is that a private investor will be to the reason why this plan interested in.

However, " Gaertner's plan " Put out with American predecessor's minister of Ministry of Finance Paulsen " The assets succour plan of the question " ( TARP) Original intention,have too great difference. Because the market is right " Poisonous assets " It is too low to fix the price, so that the bank is unable to survive, so, " Paulsen's plan " Not effective. In fact, according to the present market price, the large main bank has already gone bankrupt several times. The hope of the new plan, lie in private investment can be encouraged by the lever investment repayment of 6 times. Under this kind of encouragement, the private department can participate in " poisonous assets " Competitive bidding,thus enable bank can survive. However, I do not have sheer confidence to this kind of wishful thinking. I am anxious, " Gaertner's plan " Defective. If " poisonous assets " The price has not risen, the U.S. government may return to the old road of the nationalization bank.

Bank rescue project concern who come, pay cost, concern banking system need how long return to normal to offer the normal service. The former is a stock right question, and the political complexion is relatively heavy. People hope the storey of shareholder, creditor and manager of the bank is before the taxpayer make contributions, can pay more. The government inclines to keep capability of the banking system. The U.S. government is assuring with the debt, comes to hide it to replenish a manufacturer's fact of crisis. Let us watch Americans quietly and tolerate this kind of behavior. About how the latter minimize confused bank to economic related destruction. Look from this angle, the government will compromise, thus make the system of the bank run well as soon as possible, however, this will make the root of the trouble of making the crisis replenished.

It is that a bear market rebound that the stock market that we see now rebounds. Just as I write at the beginning of 2009, a reliable bank rescue plan will expedite the emergence of a bear market and rebound. But it will not last to rebound. After the foam of credit, reduce the course of the lever to sustain for a long time, this will hinder economy from recovering effectively. The bear market that originates in the autumn of 2007 will last three years at least, may exceed five years too this. Even if lever normalization, global economy still needs to look for the new growth mode. It's a pity, we have not found yet the structural reform has already begun, thus can find out the new growth mode.

I have already discussed, after evaporating in real estate and credit bubble, may have three results: Bankrupt, inflation and government are succoured. The first result will force creditors to accept the losses left after debts are discharged. The second result can make debtors keep the assets, because the inflation makes its debt cut down. In the 1930s, U.S.A. chose the bankrupt solution. In the twenties of the 20th century, Germany chose the inflation. In the 1990s, Japan chose the government to succour. It drops interest rate to zero, thus make the debtor's cost reduce to zero, and allow them to clear off a debt in ten years gradually. Meanwhile, Japanese Government expands the financial deficit, enables debtors to get the cash. This course is course of the debt that the public department bears the private department gradually. At the beginning of 1990s, Japanese Government could bear private department's half the debts. If not carry out the finance and stimulate and bear the private debt gradually, Japan may develop better.

After the foam evaporates, main driving force is the normalization. For example, in a normal economy, the income is 100, the price of the real estate is 100, the debt is 60. In the real estate and credit foam, the price of the real estate rises to 200, the debt turns into 150, but the income is still 100. As the foam evaporates, the price of the real estate will fall back to 100. However, the name value of the debt will not drop. If choose to solve the problem bankrupt, the persons who buy house become penniless. The creditor regains the house property, sell it by 100, record losses 50. Under the scene of the inflation, the income rises to 200. The persons who buy house keep the real estate. The creditor gets 150. But because true value has devalued by 50%, so, the creditor, because of 75 inflation losses. Under the third kind of scene, the creditor pretends debtors have not gone bankrupt, lengthen maturity, reduce the interest. Finally, the creditor can regain 150. However, because monetary value does not have now more, the creditor takes loss part in the future. Can prove, the creditor can only regain 100 at most.

The foam evaporates to make this course make complicatedly dynamically. No matter the price of the real estate drops or inflation will all cause the related damage. The most important thing is the rate of unemployment rises, this is a net loss compared with redistributing, unused workers can always produce something. Policy maker such as American Federal Reserve Committee, usually regard minimizing and damaging the policy goal relatedly as. I do not think, American Federal Reserve Committee has clear plans, only move with pressure. Because it drop, look at, make the No.1 enemy real estate price, attempt to prevent. So, American Federal Reserve Committee will print the bank note to buy mortgage assets, its consequence inhibits the interest rate of mortgage. Drop with the interest rate of mortgage, the risk that the debtor went bankrupt has been reduced, therefore has relaxed the house property to sell depressedly. Certainly, reducing the interest rate of mortgage will increase the demand of the real estate too. Through reducing supply, stimulate the demand, American Federal Reserve Committee hopes to stabilize price and economy of the real estate.

Does it buy stocks to sell the national debt?

Let us suppose American Federal Reserve Committee has succeeded, then, what will the world turn into? If fall and get back to the normal level, the real estate price of U.S.A. has already dropped by half. The policy of American Federal Reserve Committee can be replaced with inflation and further glided. So, as to the normal route, there may be 20% - 25% inflation in U.S.A.'s economy. Assume other conditions are the same, U.S. dollar will devalue from this level by 20% - 25%. American Federal Reserve Committee release week not declaring, U.S. dollar fall about 5%. I think, the story that U.S. dollar devalues will also last.

Because the policy that American Federal Reserve Committee is printing it the bank note, saving the debtor is applied to the unprecedented intensity, as to world, the best final result is just the stagflation, worse result is that the market feels panic because U.S. dollar supply increasing constantly, and sell U.S. dollar at all costs. This will initiate U.S. dollar to collapse, the misfortune of rouble was exactly the same with 1998. Its result is galloping inflation, and may make global economy fall into the confusion.

How does China tackle the policy of American Federal Reserve Committee? It is impossible for China to exert pressure for American Federal Reserve Committee, thus enable its policy of change, protect the foreign exchange reserves of China. Choose to be maximizing for U.S.A.'s intersts in policy of American Federal Reserve Committee, if needing extravagant hope U.S.A., can make contributions to the fact that the benefit of China is maximized. Until I point out, because RMB and U.S. dollar get in touch close, China foreign exchange reserve must take U.S. dollar assets as the core. Only ones that can substitute the American national debt are the American stock. In a situation that it is weak to walk in U.S. dollar, the stock should be better than bonds, they can avoid the inflation and weak tendency U.S. dollar effectively.

First of all, the income of half for 500 indexes of Standard & Poor is overseas. If U.S. dollar leaves weakly, the income by U.S. dollar will increase. Step forward, the American company will increase the competitiveness from weak tendency U.S. dollar, their stock will become more valuable too.

Second, if American Federal Reserve Committee succeeds in improving U.S.A.'s economy, the domestic demand increased will improve the company and make profits.

Third, assets such as brand and technology of the company, will all appreciate in the inflation.

The best method which enters the stock market is to buy 500 indexes of Standard & Poor. It is only assets that can match in excellence or beauty on flowability with the American national debt. Its behavior is superior to 90% of the fund manager's achievements, and is certainly better than the stock which Chinese Government choose. This avoids causing the politics that Chinese Government attempts to control American enterprises to dispute too.

However, I have not supported the Chinese Central Bank to sell the American national debt now, buy in the stock. What the first step will be done is, make the assets make up and approach the cash, reduce long one of the American national debt held as much as possible, that is to say the national debt bought is shorter and shorter on date due.

Can't expect the other countries to protect China's benefit

In order to prevent the foreign exchange reserve from devaluing, China should make great efforts to prevent the foreign exchange reserve from increasing. The only method is to increase the domestic demand, thus reduce the favourable trade balance. Though the export of China drops with about 20% of the ranges, however, import and drop faster, the favourable trade balance will not dwindle at all. This will force China to continue buying U.S. dollar assets. I think, two policies can reduce the favourable trade balance fast.

First of all, in 2009, China can expand the financial deficit to 1,500 billion yuan from 1,000 billion yuan. The extra finance should aim at family's department but not invest in to stimulate. For example, through derating, improve family's department's expenditure ability. The value-added tax can be in order to obviously reduce. It is a kind of business tax, there are the hard properties of retreating, this means greater than the rich to the proportion that the poor collecting.

China should also cut down the highest marginal tax rate of the Individual Income Tax, reduces from 40% to 25%, the same as corporate income tax. The present high tax rate is right to levy taxs and very unfavorable. Individual Income Tax income the proportion very much little of the whole fiscal revenues, and the high tax rate makes people have motive of evading payment of duty. Meanwhile, most entrepreneur keep accounts for enterprise expense their individual expenditure, thus achieve the goal of evading payment of duty. The same company and personal income income tax rate can dispel this kind of motive.

Secondly, the government can give the share of state-owned enterprise that it is held to people, thus stimulate consumption. I have calculated briefly, this plan can stimulate the consumption of 500 billion yuan. Because economy increases with consumption and can be improved, the price of these stocks will rise, and has increased the consumption of 500 billion yuan.

Tax reduction and share of state-owned enterprise of distribution can reduce the favourable trade balance of China to a certain extent, thus avoid holding the U.S. dollar assets. This will change the floating rate into to lay the foundation for RMB too, and become independent strength in global economy.

The U.S. government is doing the thing that is making its economic benefits maximize. China must do so too. The bright idea, i.e. U.S.A. maximize, act for the interests of China, it is sheerly the daydream. In the modern society, everybody is making one's own interests maximize.

Japan looks at one's reflection and admires oneself Let Asian Japanese yen economy enclosed hopelessly

With the deterioration of the financial crisis, the position of U.S. dollar drops suddenly, but what RMB have been got greatly is fixed one's eyes on. Zhou Xiaochuan, president of Bank of China, has pointed out sharply recently " The role that U.S. dollar reserved currency as the world will be eliminated gradually " ,As the sound of China, propose replacing U.S. dollar as the imagination of the international reserve currency through the way that the ultra sovereignty reserves currency on a grand scale for the first time, advise sharply IMF adopts SDR ' Special drawing rights (SDR) Special Drawing Rights) To replace U.S. dollar, become trade currency of 185 member states. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China in succession and other Central Bank of country sign the currency to exchange frame agreements, and step up setting up the preparatory work of the settlement center of RMB in Hong Kong in full preparation. A G20 meeting mentioning being be held soon, many sounds think what a movement then actually must see G2 overseas, that is to say what a movement depends on China and the United States. The praise highly the position and certainly can't say it is without offspring by the intensity of fixing one's eyes oning of RMB, but can certainly claim to be unprecedented.
Someone say this one all China and the United States the world currency war of one party. Someone says too, it will be that U.S. dollar move towards the decline in 09, RMB move towards surging the first year of an era. These statements are not questions, do not discuss the range in this text, does not go into details here. In fact, had already set up the voice that Asia unified the currency in China after Asian financial storm in 1997. Surf the Net and check " Inferior yuan " This word, can find that quite a lot of clauses and subclauses are suitable for clicking, even there are encyclopaedia websites for " inferior yuan " Have offered the special clauses and subclauses.
As early as a few years ago, China appear " U.S. dollar scene no longer, ' inferior yuan ' can come out " Ask oneself A and think" Japan can join the inferior yuan area " Confidence affirm. The financial crisis this time enables a lot of Chinese to discussing this question the enthusiasm cherished increase. I saw a Chinese's professor and some comments done toward this question of teaching in the department of economics of one university of U.S.A. at this moment, as to this can't help producing the impulse of discussing one's own idea.
This professor says, the country in Southeast Asia lets RMB become inferior wills of yuan, because they know it is impossible for one's own currency to challenge RMB. But Japan will not accept RMB and become Asian unity and close the currency. This professor also says, China is located in the centre of Asia, has border trade with 14 land route neighbouring countries, the circulation of RMB accepted by local people is very large. The professor thinks at the same time: "Japanese yen does not possess such folk advantage of RMB, it can only circulate in the settlement of country and country, though Japan is the first major economy in Asia, Japanese yen is the currency of the complete internationalization, and is stored by various countries, but the Japanese orphan hangs in the sea, its congenital weakness makes it not favoured during the long-term trend. "
Weak tendency of Japanese yen still the day after tomorrow no matter say because " whether Japan orphan hang among the sea " for the moment ,So there is Japanese yen " Not favoured during the long-term trend " "congenital weakness" ,As to one such argument, I feel that it is very difficult to accept. We might as well come to see the geographical position of Britain. Britain is too " The orphan hangs it in the sea " One piece country,however, it have normally " favour on long-term trend " "congenital weakness" Pound sterling the fashionable all over the world for a long time but once,for world hard currency that go everywhere without any hindrance here. Before U.S. dollar emerges, pound sterling is closed the currency by what all parts of the world trust.
I think, close the currency or internationalized currency in unity that the currency of a big country can become one area, there is no decisive or inborn relation with the geographical position of the issue country of this currency. Issue of Japan sight island country very much of it, make visual field of it narrow, the sight lacks the strength of penetrating in world too. Full of one's own pots of bowls wooden dipper basin as what the second economic giant and the first major economy of Asian Japan of world cared about, lack the style that a leader's country there should be and sacrifice spirits.
In middle period of the 1990s, though Japan had already fallen into the foam economic bust state at that time. However, a lean camel is bigger than a horse, its economic strength is still several times as much as China. Remember that a magazine invites me to participate in the discussion at that time. The topic of the discussion is that Asia may set up the economy of Japanese yen to enclose.
A Taiwanese's opinion warmly participating in discussion: "Asia probably sets up the economy of Japanese yen to enclose, and should set up the economy of Japanese yen to enclose. " Asia that is the looking at one's reflection and admiring oneself of Japan, it is impossible to set up the economy of Japanese yen to enclose in Asia. It is because Japan lacks the style that a leader's country there should be and sacrifice spirits not to set up the main reason why the economy of Japanese yen encloses. I clearly remember, the young editress of the magazine office is bringing a pair of eyes which sympathizes with the pitiful one and gazing at me, it seems that she has seen one and lived in modern A Q of Japan.
However, time stand by my sides. Have a media can be and then in Japan now " Whether Asia may set up the economy of Japanese yen to enclose " Such a topic comes to hold the discussion. The ones that said Japan cared about were full of one's own pots of bowls wooden dipper basin, did not consider every possible angle the region or world eyes. Such views and condemnation are rather a bit too acrimonious and too cruel for Japanese. However, you see it in the Japanese behavior of discussing solved in the six nation talks of the nuclear arms of Korea, can know this appraisal on Japan is not groundless criticism definitely.

Why do Vietnamese frontier inspection personnel like blackmailing Chinese?

Chinese go to Vietnam, nearly all have experience which is blackmailed the wealth by Vietnamese port frontier inspection personnel, no matter you get all all certificates to Vietnam ready according to Vietnamese national regulation, there is not hygiene not essential that examine the pratique, so long as you are Chinese, come in and go out port, frontier inspection of Vietnamese, personnel, frontier inspection of Vietnamese, charge you Third Five-Year Plan Period yuan at least, extort your several hundred yuan at most. Chinese who often come in and go out in Vietnam, I believe that there are thoughts and feelings certainly.

I will often go to Vietnam, will come in and go out in the frontier inspection port of Vietnam each time because of the public affair, it is a troubling thing. Frontier inspection except that clearance facilities far lag behind China port of Vietnam, that is personnel's outandout asking for the expenses of Vietnamese frontier inspection, if does not give, deduct passport and you and consume time, have to bargain with it finally, try hard to try to give a bit less the expenses, then go away and finish.

Frontier inspection port through Vietnam two times recently, I observe carefully, discover personnel, frontier inspection of Vietnamese, come in and go out to every one people of Vietnam ask for the wealth, target to ask for wealth Chinese, reason that ask for " the hygiene examine the pratique " nothing more than ,Or it is not up to standard to come in and go out and close the procedure and fill in. Release to the personnel who hold passport of other countries and regions without exception.

Then, do I very wonder why do Vietnameses only ask for the wealth from Chinese? With come in and go out person of Vietnam exchange, refer to this with some Vietnamese friends too often I, have untied this mystery gradually. Vietnameses ask for the wealth from Chinese, have its Vietnamese factor, but and there are relations in compatriots' habit and diplomatic weak tendency.

Vietnam has been colonized for nearly 100 years by France, gift and collect the habit of the tip after accepting the Europeans, it is the thing that one are accustomed to that the Vietnamese society collects and asks for tips. As time goes on, Vietnameses have regarded asking for the tip as a kind of natural thing. Every clear, pay " a little silver " to government relevant concrete person handling in people that Vietnam handle affairs ,Will certainly give a great discount in its speed.

The Vietnamese government functionary's income is very low, the government asks for the behavior of the tip and adopts and opens an eye to close the tactics of an eye to the government functionary, cause the degeneration of the Vietnamese government, the situation of the corruption in vogue. But Vietnamese officers have an unwritten regulation, Vietnamese ordinary common people go to the government department to handle affairs, the officers can not ask for the reward, the officers adhere to " kill the big crocodile " With " kill outside personnel " Rule. The ordinary common people in Vietnam have approved of the officers' behavior instead, this is a very peculiar strange form.

Foreigners are used to give tips too, but why do Vietnameses lock the target of asking for the tip as Chinese? Foreigners think frontier inspection is government's public affair sexual behavior, not a commercial service act, if ask for tips, just accept bribes. Then, when Vietnamese frontier inspection personnel ask for the tip from personnel of other countries, will often argue strongly on just grounds, do so that Vietnamese frontier inspection personnel are very awkward, the money can not be snubbed. The western countries, will also become these behaviors the diplomatic behavior, condemn and protest diplomacy to Vietnam at the same time, and send out diplomacy to present a note to to the Vietnamese related departments.

The Vietnamese government is a financial weak tendency government, the aid that the operation funds of the government will stem from the countries all over the world supports. The western countries, while offering Vietnamese financial assistance, government's staff members' honesty degree is a key index. Then, Vietnamese government fears the criticism of the western countries, block it to help, do not dare to create obstacles to the personnel of other countries when it comes in and goes out in the border. So, in the Vietnamese frontier inspection port, can not basically see the phenomenon that Vietnamese frontier inspection personnel blackmail the personnel of other countries.

The Chinese traditional habit is to pour oil on troubled waters, in the face of the requirement overstepping one's bounds which Vietnamese frontier inspection personnel put forward, so long as does not go too far, in the ranges that can be accepted, will all generally adopt and buy one and save worry, frank offering " A little silver " ,Still come to one and save trouble. Vietnameses catch this psychology of Chinese, will not ask for too much either often. If touring party number numerous, can offer discount price also, each person collect 0.15, do not exceed five yuan either at most. If individual clears customs, it is 10 yuan at most. If meet the soft persimmon, one sum of extortion that Vietnameses seize the chance ruthlessly. Although the quantity is small, take Pingxiang and port of Dongxing as an example, come in and go out every day Chinese of Vietnam are up to several tens of thousands, its tip income is very considerable.

The behavior which Chinese bribe to Vietnameses voluntarily, has encouraged the bluster that Vietnameses ask for the tip from Chinese. Because the Vietnamese frontier inspection port electronic treatment clearance level is not high, mostly by dealing with artificially, because the flow of the people is relatively large, close in order to be come in and gone out as soon as possible, some Chinese take the initiative and insert 10 yuan or 20 yuan inside the passport, Vietnamese frontier inspection personnel appreciate thoroughly and release in advance, if Vietnamese frontier inspection personnel see that it is with tip to insert inside the passport. If things go on like this, Vietnameses catch the Chinese speculation psychology, if Vietnameses think Chinese can be congenial very, unreasonable behavior to ask for tip, clear-cut to ask for or blackmail directly right away.

The embassies and consulates stationed abroad of China, meet difficulty abroad to Chinese in recent years, help certain one. But in protecting the rights and interests of the Chinese citizen and overseas Chinese, do far from enough. Normally, the behavior of embarrassing the Chinese citizen openly in the Vietnamese frontier inspection port, it never allows to ask for the wealth from Chinese citizen, but Chinese Government insist on, interfere he domestic method of policy, oneself sit on the sidelines, let Vietnameses blackmail the Chinese citizen and feel reassured and emboldened on account of the support too. If China and Vietnamese government honest and upright aid in Vietnam, get in touch to Chinese's friendly intensity, even if give several pieces of courage, Vietnameses do not dare to stretch out one's hand and ask for the property from Chinese citizen either.

It is unnecessary for us to demonstrate the advantage to Vietnam, but we should carry on the negotiation with Vietnam on a reciprocal and fair platform. Vietnameses blackmail the Chinese citizen, relate to Chinese traditional culture and life custom. However, as the relevant functional departments of the government, bear the obligation to correct compatriot's bad habit, bear the heavy responsibility daring to protect the Chinese citizen? While compatriots make a self-criticism, the government should review carefully.

Others are not terrible when blackmailing us, a terrible one is accustomed to in the face of blackmailing us, and does not emit one's own sound!

Think of Zhang Guorong by paying attention to depression

Hear from friend, tell a thing of making an appointment on April 1, after decent 800 talked once, add by one sentence at foot, this is not a April Fool's Day joke absolutely. However, I believe to some love films and persons of the music, after 2003, absolutely there is not any relation with the joke for April 1. At that sorrowful dusk, 24 storeys of gentle hotel of China of Hong Kong, build up body on the outdoor balcony, Zhang Guorong jumps up, has left the last poetic masterpiece of the life.

After Zhang Guorong passed away, a fixed program on April Fool's Day was that an excessive feeling commemorated the match of the characters. To be frank, I once took exception to this very much. I had opinions to excessively explain disease very much too on people after seeing " metaphor of disease " of Susan and Sontag. I think what people should care about at first is, at that dusk, the true state of the idol Zhang Guorong.

Before jumping out of the building, he had wandered up and down for more than one hour. Yes, he may be very in pain, but uncertain. He at that time, is more of a patient with critical situation than a sentimental singer. He suffers from depression. According to case, he may full of thoughts at that time, liver and intestines are cut into inches, any other things think no perhaps either, having just had illness coming on for no reason, make a fuss over a trifling matter, disheartened and desperate, can't help wanting to jump out of the building.

Why did he want to choose to commit suicide? Because he is a depression patient. One suffers from depression, may relate to the fact that he is the gay, relate to the fact that he performs the tragedy, may matter too, because of job high pressure, cause by heredity or neuropathy completely only. Peasants may get this disease too, it is possible too for the scientist. This disease patient was mostly women in the past, especially after producing ago, take a fancy to more and more men now, become one of the human main killers in the 21st century. Global patient have several hundred million people, China have 20 million more than, have, commit suicide dangerous person account for 10%-15% of patient, Zhang Guorong is one of them.

In order to object to the excessive explanation of disease, especially take disease and make up sad illusion, Susan and Sontag has written with a famous book. In the book, she has announced these metaphors, for example in era in the past, pulmonary tuberculosis was a kind of more general mortality disease, some poet writer such as Keats, Kafka,etc. catch an illness, make it for no reason romantic to take. " death and life are so strange to merge disease together specially that Dickens calls pulmonary tuberculosis, so that the death has obtained light and color and luster of the life, but the life has caught melancholy and terror of the death " . Pulmonary tuberculosis becomes the patent disease of bright love for a time, until leukemia substitutes it. Sontag says making clear the purpose and main theme from the very beginning: "My view is, disease is not a metaphor, and the sincerest way to treat disease - -It is the healthiest way that the patient treats disease at the same time - -Dispel or resist metaphor thinking as much as possible. "

The above is the view that I wrote several years ago. This basic view has not changed till now, but my attitude toward persons who cherish the memory of has changed. I no longer repeat those and satirize their words. I know that it is a kind of disease too to cherish the memory of, how many excessive feelings of characters a patient writes, I should not mind how much exaggerative emotion there is. What's more, in front of art and emotion, I can not really tell, some called excessive feeling, it has been overstated that some let. I oneself want, go, see that piece take " the east evil west malicious ultimate edition " that person swindle money very much very much too.

Apply mechanically one concern amusement what of current political situation say era of Zhang Guorong pass by already. Have really gone over? Why so many people do not joke on the April Fool's Day? Having certainly gone over, has read Chen Kaige's new works " Mei Lanfang ", you know even more where " Farewell My Concubine " is fortunately.

As to me, a reason of the memory is, in Chinese movie & TV of today is enclosed, I can not still really look for a grounding in basic skills like him out deeply and the actor with the feeling come diligently. Such a actor dies in youth, really make people sigh. Just because of this too, we will pay attention to disease even more, don't be confused by its metaphor.

" Chinese aircraft carrier " : Deter but not threaten

Existing international relations chess board, it is an eternal theme that the interests play chess, and the capability is the base that interests ensure. As regards this, China has aircraft carriers, military and the same with having cores, do not threaten others, just through the limited but effective deterrence, guarantee rights and interests and security of China.



A few days ago, GuangLie Liang, secretary of defence of Chinese, defend the minister Hamada say while pacifying first talk in Japan of visit, China is the only big country without aircraft carrier, China can not never have aircraft carriers. Because declare it from the Chinese secretary of defence this time, and the signal sent out, compared with defining that calm in the past, the fictitious for over 20 years in the past one " The Chinese aircraft carrier " The concept seem will be turned into reality in future not remote. Under this linguistic context, " Chinese aircraft carrier " Paid close attention to by the international community again.

In fact, China has one's own aircraft carriers, is just the symbol that the big country makes the transition, but not the threat on the geographical reason. In our times, not only the global big country has aircraft carriers, even such small countries of Thailand, Argentina but also have aircraft carriers. As politics, economy and trade " The Trinity " Having big countrying, China aircraft carrier have the getting getting more normal more very instead,mismatch too. In addition, China is still the marine country with more than 3 million marine territories and coastline of several tens of thousands of kilometers, it is realistic choices too to protect and help the national marine rights and interests by the aircraft carrier. It lack aircraft carrier can only to be the stagnant in China on " Yellow civilization " Short for board stage,it is " civilizations blue " will be arrived not to sublimate Ocean make the country prosperous aspect. Lack China of the aircraft carrier, just like a peaceful gentleman, red feet in Western dress and leather shoes.

Under the present financial crisis, China needs the world, the world needs China even more. Can find out, the interdynamic of Sino-America G2 is cores of this summit from G20 summit that will open soon. Among G20, include all aircraft carrier country nearly, regard as, bear important China of role, not so obviously unseasonable too as aircraft carrier. Big country's status is not merely the honor of the nihility, bear the global responsibility for matching even more. Without the escorting of aircraft carrier, the global cooperation in the aspect of ocean in China, the full play of big country's responsibility has been restricted. So have aircraft carrier China symbol that big country make the transition, it is China that give play to global strategic carrier of responsibility too.

As for the apprehensions of the surrounding countries, the noises of the western countries, only meet trouble halfway habitually. Explode to satellite flying to the sky from atomic bomb, reach and then Beijing Olympic Games, it not so good ases to be don't. Go over according to one's own will, those arrogance and prejudice to China not merely disappear in a flash, will also reap dignity and honor. Such as the Olympic Games in Beijing, it is one slice that is resisted before this, highly praises in the whole world afterwards; For another example the Chinese gunship goes to the gulf of Aden far, it is that a noise is noisy before setting out even more, praised by the international community now. So, China has aircraft carriers, should smile and query to external world.

The fact is, even if there is no aircraft carrier in China, the pattern of playing chess of geographical reason of the Asian-Pacific area has been existing all the time, the beautiful Australia's Day " Asian NATO " The strategies for China contain it rest. Japan " allow aircraft carrier " " turn towards on day " Entering the water of number destroyer, the overall arrangement in the area of the Asian-Pacific area of U.S.A.'s strategic missile defense systems, east Hainan sea island complexity of battle of sovereignty, explain, experience geographical reason threaten, oppress sense China really. Defend strategy, making China in a difficult position and surrounding in the aircraft carrier country and " Asian NATO " in the traditional coastal waters of China And in the island chain which the satellite country connects in series is fettered.

China does not deny that deter the effect in the inshore breakthrough function and ocean with an aircraft carrier. Existing international relations chess board, it is an eternal theme that the interests play chess, and the capability is the base that interests ensure. As regards this, China has aircraft carriers, military and the same with having cores, do not threaten others, just through the limited but effective deterrence, guarantee rights and interests and security of China.

What deserves to be mentioned is rely on present capability and technology, China can construct one have, continue a journey aircraft carrier of ability limitlessly at any time. No matter whether others like, the Chinese aircraft carrier is no longer the dream.

One dollar " Genuine " Shake U.S.A. " Of inferior brand "

Since Palestinian horse's government assumed power, the Sino-US relations are still in the break-in period when is combined again. Conglutination for interests community, in addition, U.S.A. get deeply stuck in financial crisis, economic recession mire can't free oneself at present more and more because of two country economy, hope China this piece heavy creditor nation help break away from predicament most, so relations between the two countries overall to should be can predicted to fine trend naturally.
Reformation in relations between the two countries take shape issue certainly, accidentally more and more easy to become " eventful period " . Each side force of U.S.A. lead one after another, existence to reveal strength, attempt, so as to exert pressure, influence, control the tendency of the Sino-US relations. Meanwhile, the development of U.S.A. needs China, it is due to China that U.S.A. deals with a great deal of international affairs, on one hand want to develop the relation of benign cycle, on the other hand fear again the peace of China will threaten the status of superpower of U.S.A. to emerge, having a chance to prevent from, come as a hard blow at China will not miss easily, the relation with China of U.S.A. is in such a contradiction will be pestered.
No, the sound of one's walking that the financial summit of London is held is nearer and nearer, horse of Chinese President Hu Jintao and US President Palestine will come soon if horse of Chinese President Hu Jintao and US President Palestine holds the time that Sino-America heads meet for the first time. Before this, U.S.A. takes this opportunity to lead the multifarious card in many ways, or play the same old tune, either bluff, or bare fangs and brandish claws, it is enough to make people dazzled. Review these cards recently, in fact nothing more than three kinds too: Political card, economic card, military card.
A dozen political cards. Here includes three cards. First, human rights card: On February 25, the State Council of U.S.A. refers " 2008 country's right reports of others " to US Congress formally, this report is based on report even rumour that say, under the pretence of human rights issue, carry on groundless criticism to a lot of countries including China, interfere his domestic policy rudely. Second, Tibet card: On March 10, White House and spokesman of United States Senate deliver a speech and call with the statement, the American height pays close attention to " Tibet human rights " ,Criticize the Tibet policy of Chinese Government; On March 11, American House of Representatives objects to it strongly regardless of Chinese side, adopts and involves in hiding it against China's draft resolution, interfere China's internal affairs. Third, Taiwan card: On March 19, commandant's base court of American army of the Pacific Ocean is pointed out in the US Congress, under the unofficial relation, U.S.A. and Taiwan maintain closely and interdynamically, it verifies American official side participates in the most extensive annual manoeuvre of Taiwan army to disclose for the first time; On March 24, American House of Representatives votes through a draft resolution involving Taiwan, reaffirms the commitment of " and Law of Taiwan Relation " correctly, interfere China's internal affairs. It is U.S.A.'s consistent trick to play human rights card, totally ignore the historical progress of China's human rights, continue distorting facts and attacking the human rights state of China for no reason, but not review American one's own numerous human rights issue oppositely, have issued U.S.A.'s human rights to note down and smoke to this China instead for ten years in succession. Tibet, Taiwan have been an inalienable part of the territory of China since ancient times, play two card these change, have a lot of essence of meanings eventually while being impossible.
Two dozens of economic cards. On March 18, American Federal Reserve Committee says that will begin to buy the long-term national debt amounting to 300 billion dollars within 6 months, and the scale that will buy debt cards of room two and secured loan financing mechanism securities at present and plan is expanded by 850 billion dollars, to 1,450 billion dollars. Lead with color of trade protectionism card at the same time such as appropriation of U.S.A. bill forbid Chinese to be poultry imported, U.S.A. import to China steel tube raise tariffs. Start " the money press " Rescue city to out of direct China against, but because hold and occupy the first American national debt of the world completely on a large scale, the Chinese foreign exchange reserve shrinks objectively, the pressure with safe U.S. dollar assets is larger, but to U.S.A., this kind rescue city be made a desperate move, at one stroke, let U.S.A. bear U.S. dollar devalue, enormous risk of inflation, have to U.S.A. find it hard to tell about one's suffering too perhaps for it. Harm others to benefit oneself trade card, resistance to suffer China, may lead a lot of card conveniently too, U.S.A. can not preponderate.
Three dozens of military cards. March 8, USN " have no time No. " The surveying vessel intrudes upon the Chinese exclusive economic zone of the South China Sea to carry on measuring illegally, American military seizes on an incident to exaggerate or distort matters and provokes the dispute; On March 25, American Ministry of National Defence delivers new China's military strength report the most, ingores fact, as it always goes, continue playing up " China's military threat " ; American official side participated in Taiwan " Light of Chinese " Military exercises is also political also a card of the military affairs. Play up extremely to the limit " China's military threat " Totally not tenable, what China took consistently is peaceful development path, it was defensive national defence policy that was followed, did not participate in the arms race of any kind, do not constitute a threat to any country. Only big disparity exists through China's overall military strength and U.S.A. to bent on playing military card, it is further strong in fact with China's military strength, the further promotion of the comprehensive national strength, this card will be overshadowed naturally.
Perhaps because U.S.A. is overly used to leading voluntarily, overly used to various " of inferior brand " out ,A card which Zhou Xiaochuan, president of the People's Bank of China, led conveniently a few days ago, can not be stood by U.S.A..
Zhou Xiaochuan release " about thinking to reform international monetary system two articles " about deposits rate thinking of issue " " in succession, it is for strengthening financial supervision and reform, setting up the call of the new order of international finance, especially appeal for creating the international reserve currency breaking off relations with the sovereign state, the goal directs at the hegemony of very firm U.S. dollar for a long time, drawing common concern of governments of various countries and fierce dispute of the expert, media. This card may well be termed and seize " Vital part " With " key " ,The step is responded in a hurry to force U.S.A. to be messy. On March 24, Palestinian horse objects to setting up international reserve currency while holding the news briefing in White House, think the opportunity still unripe; Palestinian horse publishes the signed article on 31 medias such as " Los Angeles Times ", emphasize U.S. dollar " Unusually powerful " ,It is unnecessary to set up the position that new global currency replaces U.S. dollar now. Uncle of American Federal Reserve Committee President the south gram and finance minister Gaertner even " Refuse " Abandonment U.S. dollar proposition. The US President sounds twice within one day, extremely rare, it seems Palestinian horse is really urgent.
In fact Zhou Xiaochuan's view is not lonely, comply with the voice of the international community oppositely, have brought the extensive sympathetic response. Proposition this, accord with Russia, Brazil, India, South Korea, South Africa,etc. main new developing economy wish eagerly, raise right to speak and words heartfelt wishes of right, will get support naturally; The country of the euro area regards the financial crisis as shaking the important opportunity of the national status of core in the international monetary system of U.S.A. too. Will produce such big response, the basic reason is still to stemming from international financial crisis of the loan crisis once of U.S.A. on the basis of world each side, cause the deep introspection of international economy's enormous disaster, the drawback taking U.S. dollar as leading international finance system is exactly a root of the trouble among them. The outburst of this financial crisis, has been already indicating U.S. dollar should get off step by step from the overlord's throne.
Certainly U.S.A. will not give up this throne easily. Prize this fulcrum of U.S. dollar, establish the brand-new international finance order, will have some work to do, need long-time chess match. But the proposition of this proposition, will bring extremely deep influence to financial summit of London held soon. At this summit, the reform about international monetary system will become a great focus of common note purpose, will even further initiate the fierce discussion, and then transform and strengthen international financial supervision, deepen the motive force of the system reform of the international finance.
The card of Zhou Xiaochuan, reverse China deal with situation that U.S.A. frequently leads passively at one blow, grasp the initiative in one's own hands. Lay in, it is with the personal name the sophisticated place of this card, the aspect probed into from theory and technology set out, and article withdraw U.S.A. and U.S. dollar in the whole text, afford to play, the heart is amazed by secretly hitting and having U.S.A.. Such card, since promote a card of system supervising and reform of the international finance directly, one card that attack by innuendo, tell American party concerned, by produce mixed card helpless to good for the relation between countries frequently, the Sino-US relations need going to face with the objective, candid, wise posture, go to help pushing away, go to develop, and long-term interest that this just meets reality of the people of two countries and two countries' needs.

Deputy director of development and reform committee, you are lying!

Oil price rise in price again until how often does it lower no. And after rising in price, national deputy director of development and reform committee Peng Sen says: "Form method according to new price, international oil price 20 the sky and the sun the amount of the increase or amount of decrease exceeds 4%% continuously, should consider that adjust the price of domestic readymade oil. " It is responses done after one cycle in 20 days to rise in price this time continuously, so is proper, there are laws to abide by. (March 27 " Yangzi Evening ")


Since there are laws to abide by, we assert tentatively it is really reasonable. Except this one " There are laws to abide by " , have a word such: The readymade oil of China costs price low most national oil prices except getting rid of the main oil-producing country. Compared with American oil price, should see the requirements of the two are different. The price of domestic readymade oil includes the consumption tax, the price level is similar after removing the consumption tax.


This words seem a bit obscure at first glance, let me translate for ladies and gentlemen: In fact what he said is that U.S.A. has consumption taxes too, refuels or has two prices to do shopping in U.S.A., one is price of the goods, how many taxes are needed paying one is this goods. Of these two pieces of summation is similar to China's present oil price. But he has not stated in this way, but say if removed the consumption tax at the Chinese oil price, " naked oil " The price is similar.


Thank great Internet, let us have so near and yet so far feelings. I will surf the Net and ask U.S.A. friend in Virginia at once, just he had just finished adding the oil at that time, he tells me, the oil price there is 1.95 dollars per gallon on the same day - --Please note, one gallon is probably 3.785 liters. If, for exchange rate of U.S. dollar, " naked oil " according to RMB on the same day Price 3.53 yuan. The highest place of the American consumption tax is California, it is probably 7%%, the cheapest place is Alaska, it is 26.4 cents per gallon to be fixed. State that he belong to 4%% consumption tax roughly, that is to say friend of me add if liter of petrol prices convert come back, it is 3.63 yuan. This all add, add to the price of his fuel tank.


Say, the statement of that deputy director of development and reform committee is actually a kind of " mislead " above from a certain degree ,What I understood is, he does not understand the fact of the consumption tax tax rate of U.S.A. with everybody, let everybody think by mistake if added this consumption tax, the price of two countries was similar.


Well, even return one step, " do according to what you said " ,If we are according to this one " The naked oil " The similar assumption inferences of two countries of the price go up, see how much our consumption tax is. " naked oil " The price is 3.53 yuan, and 5.52 yuan after the oil price of Beijing rise in price, if my mathematics of the primary school has not been forgotten all yet, this tax rate is 36%%. Under that is to say, the average general consumption tax is 4%% of the states in U.S.A.ing, the consumption tax that we need to pay is 9 times of this developed country!


" in company that make money most in the world not to know whether someone remembers that one for these two days, China has three home " News,it is in not having petroleum among them that,it move of being another one, it has to be Industrial and Commercial Bank. China enterprise that petroleum make money in this way, money its from where come on? If this consumption tax is really so high, sure not to be a profit which hit the petroleum, it is a tax put away by the country. Without such a high consumption tax, then, our " naked oil " The price will certainly not be similar to U.S.A.. We can ask the deputy director answer one two select first question at this point: It is that you are here " The naked oil " Has lain at the price, or so high a tax rate of national regulation? I do not know which one this deputy director will select.


The domestic oil price has been condemned for a long time, last year when the international oil price of crude oil slumped, can grow and grow and shoulder reduction but not, to issuing a " fuel oil tax " finally Have lowered some at long last. And while rising in price, there is a " rise in price continuously in 20 days " at once New method that the domestic oil price is expected to rise. Half a year and 20 day, rate its almost in rate in consumption tax of U.S.A. with us roughly.


The amount of people's livelihood is difficult! No matter mobile phone fee or oil price all surmount developed countries so much, the money which is making compatriots becomes one of the companies that makes money most in the world, meanwhile, we will be told and has not actually paid more money than others. It is compatriot to be the true like folk adage that one to be spoken " Others " Have sold and still helped " Others " Count the fool of the money? And this one " Others " Who is it?


Everybody needs to remember this " there are laws to abide by " 20 day,and with this as the starting point, Chinese oil price on at it stare at urgent next 20 day: I wish this law was in charge of rising, in charge of falling too.

Korea want the nucleon not to need the stomach? Suspect China reveals the nuclear secret

Korea notify IMO of, second engine of rocket fall outside more than 3,600 kilometers ' 2 such as Milk Way ' that launch April. The farthest range that American, South Korean and Japanese are inferred after comprehensive analysis at this point, ' big Pu hole the 2nd ' reaches 8,000 kilometers. The west thinks, Korea costs several ten million dollars to develop the intercontinental missile; In the disaster that more than 8 million people go hungry, the authorities of Pyongyang really want the nucleon not to need the stomach?

Made ' big Pu hole in Korea the 2nd ' how much spent? South Koreans analyze from 30 million dollars to several hundred million dollars. Korea launches to East China Sea for one ' big Pu hole and the 2nd ' guided missile and six " fleet-footed runner, reed hole " in July of two or six years At the guided missile, South Korean military infers about 63,690,000 dollars altogether of expenses. The export price of a scud missile is 2,500,000 to 4 million dollars, " The hole of the reed " Have more expensive guided missiles, ' heavy 2 such as hole Pu ' guided missile want 30 million to be about. By inference, launch ' heavy the 1st such as hole Pu ' cost 20 million dollars 1998. May launch ' heavy 2 such as hole Pu ' improve than the global performance of guided missile three years ago this time, the South Korean policy organization expert estimates: ' develop and make " heavy hole 2 No. Pu " launch body might cost 65 million. '

South Korea plan, launch No., KSLV1 of body, cost more than 500 billion Han Huan together on first domestic universe that July launch ' 360 million dollars) ,Including buying mother missile,etc. from Russia with 200 million dollars. If South Korea researches and develops independently may be one time expensive. In this case, blockaded Korea punished by world for a long time, it must be ' the fee of little slow difference ' to develop the long-range missile secretly. The relevant persons in charge of South Korean government say: ' consider the characteristic of Korea's socialist system, should spend than South Korea littly, but development expense sources of long-range missile such as the necessary logarithm " big Pu hole No. 2 " at ten million dollars,etc. track that investigates. '

The west helps the whereabouts and tracks too to the grain of Korea that investigates. Special announcer cheats and fluffies the human rights issue in Korea of the United Nations redly for March 16 and says, after Korea determined to accept U.S.A. to offer 500,000 tons of grain to help directly, indirectly last June, have already accepted 170,000 tons. Korea refused the American grain to help suddenly recently, drove five NGOs distributing the grain in Korea away, it may be around controlling the contradiction upgrading that the grain distributed because of both sides. The west suspects Kim Jong-il diverts the grain ration of victim of the disaster in the military or government, Korea does not certainly allow foreigners to meddle in the grain that relieve the people in stricken areas to release. " starve the thing littly, the disloyal thing is great " .

The west always complains that produces the transparency of lacking in the country together, suspect China researches and develops the atomic bomb and spends money being few than U.S.A. independently. Therefore infer Korea costs several a hundred million dollars to develop the intercontinental missile. Questions are just more than 20 billion towards GDP in the north, military spending is only more than ten hundred million dollars, people's grain ration money is not enough to make nuclear bomb either. Suspect simply China or Russia reveals the nuclear secret.

See brilliance toweringly by China's global strategy

The global financial crisis breaks out so far, the global strategic situation of China seems the great change to takes place. Prominent characteristic its, China begin, face with calm attitude one's own strategy tell strategic objective of sueing for peace, no longer cover up or avoid sedulously, no longer overly scruple the noise of the external world.

Compared with posture of hiding one's talent and living in obscurity in the past 20 years, this is a great turn of meriting attention. It not merely indicates Chinese Government is clear on the chest to internal and external situations, has sober understanding to the difficulty, opportunity and trend, and indicate even more, while already international order started is recombinated, China holds back while no longer hiding deeply as before, but bear the role who corresponded to one's own capability taking as own duty.

Change described above appearing in China's global strategic situation, can see very clearly from the following state of affair.

Broad and level   Rotate and keep in order to attack

First build the plan of the aircraft carrier. Has built the topic of the aircraft carrier already for many years, but China has not taken a stand with perfect assurance all the time, or a quilt "  China threat theory "  Frighten, or oneself " the peace emerges " Inhibition institute fetter. In a word, China doubts in attitude Shangyou indefinitely, mutters and mumbles in stating, often too reasonable to make it clear, even deemed that it is ashamed to have something on one's conscience, have in the heart by the external world.

However, one period recently, especially in Beijing " two Conferences " Front and back, it begins to " sprinkle " in China ,Emit bit by bit "  Build aircraft carrier "  Rumour,it want it for big countries other it adapt to and accept slowly. At last, secretary of defence roof beam only strong to meet Japan defend ministers, in Beijing Monday, tell him China will build aircraft carrier face to face, one of the reasons is that " China can have aircraft carrier forever " . In the view of a lot of Chinese, this " reason " Say oxen really very much, all more convincing than the explanation of any lengthy speech. But, why were not these words spoken in the past? The reason had no him, just because the strategy at that time of China made a reservation and was in the defensive, have no end of misgivings, it is not calm enough to cause the psychology.

Second reform the suggestion of the order of the international finance. After the financial crisis breaks out, China calls upon many times to reform the system of the international finance, advocate increasing the policy-making powers of developing countries, but has never proposed the concrete suggestion of any enough one's own weight of reflection, in the dispute of the value of RMB instead, continue being nitpicked and criticized by the western countries.

However, by March, the attitude of Chinese Government is clear gradually, it is more straightforward that fight back the western way. The most representative state of affair is, at the press conference after in the national people's congress, Premier Wen Jiabao to U.S.A. financial security issue of system, afford to cover up at all, deeply feel and worry the huge U.S. dollar national debt that China holds. This one transfers to and keeps and becomes effective immediately the situation that is attacked, is forced president Ma of bar of to respond rapidly, declare U.S.A. is "  The safest in the world one "  Investment place.

And have incident of shaking the result even more, it is " replaces U.S. dollar " that Chinese president of Central Bank Zhou Xiaochuan puts forward Suggestion. When group's summit of 20 countries of attracting attention in the whole world will be held soon, Zhou Xiaochuan will publish the article on the webpage of the People's Bank of China, not criticizing the stability that U.S.A. fails to guarantee U.S. dollar calling the roll, the result causes the financial crisis to spread in the whole world. He proposes, should reform the international monetary system, creats a kind of new currency as the future international reserve currency, in order to replace function of U.S. dollar.

The ones that direct at Washington "  The lifeblood " 

This seems to be the careless article that threw out, initiate the shock on the American political circles and wealth circle immediately. It is Palestine Ma Israel of the president that show proposal to object to Zhou Xiaochuan in person first, then it is the member of congress that proposes inquiring finance minister Gaertner and gram of the south of federal President, uncle of reserve, with great emphasis, two people express this proposal of the opposition too.

What is interesting is, another occasion hereafter, but Gaertner said, U.S.A. " held an open attitude " to Zhou Xiaochuan's proposal . This one language, U.S. dollar market is shaken again. Gaertner causes Chinese side's strong discontent because of criticizing Chinese Government and handling the exchange rate of RMB while accepting inquiry in the Congress before taking up an official post. This time, he refused Zhou Xiaochuan's proposal in the Congress absolutely too, but said self-contradictorily that " held an open attitude " hereafter . The feeling for somebody is, Gaertner has a lingering fear, is afraid that holds crime Beijing again.

Looking at the moment, Zhou Xiaochuan finishes" the era of U.S. dollar " about creating new currency Proposal,seem to be take purpose it before London summit, exercise for Hu Jintao president there aren't words the rights, thus advocate preparing public opinion for the advent of for the others of China.

However, this extraordinary proposal, will not just start from the tactics purpose, back its should have long-term strategic thinking. Superstrong status and influence that U.S.A. has today today, one of the most key reasons, there is U.S. dollar "  The generation value that general "  . We can say, the surging position of U.S. dollar is " lifeblood " of U.S.A. ,In the political vocabulary of China is "  Key interests "  . So, the decline and even replacing of U.S. dollar, mean the decline of U.S.A. and is replaced naturally.

China disclose status to challenge U.S. dollar never in the past, first, because of having no ability, dare not; Second, because of need U.S. dollar, no need. Then, does Zhou Xiaochuan makes the form of threatening to U.S. dollar this time, prove that there are such ability and necessity now? Say practically, the ability of China is far and non- enough, the necessity is not urgent either. The problem is, China is the oldest creditor in U.S.A.. The creditor has something to say, the side in debt have to hear.

U.S.A. is very clear, China can not abandon U.S. dollar in a short time, but it holds 30% of the U.S. dollars in the world to store after all, so come from " replaces U.S. dollar " of the mouth of China ,Seem very sensitive. On the issue that like Taiwan, every gesture between Washington and Taibei will both make Beijing taken notice of very much; Likewise, are concerning U.S.A. " key benefit " U.S. dollar at question,can last nerves sensitive of White House the China one every word and action. As to Beijing, since U.S.A. can often appreciate the Taiwan Issue, why can not be often affectedly bashful the question of U.S. dollar in China?

Trend of power transposition

Third set up "  The world banking centre "  Great ambition. When the topic of U.S. dollar spread, the State Council of China " proposed " through a policy the day before yesterday ,It causes the world banking centre and transports the centre by sea to determine to hit Shanghai before 2020 years. Come, say the strategy of Shanghai make a reservation, China a portion that global strategy orientate in fact from essence.

The Chinese media does not forget to criticize U.S.A. for initiating the international financial crisis again in this decision of the report, then caused assaulting to global economy seriously, has " developed and formed the severe challenge steadily comparatively fast to the economy of our country " . Obviously, China's short-term strategic intention, lie in reducing and evading the destructive influence of U.S.A.'s financial system; Its long-term strategic objective, will set up the independently controllable world banking centre, offer levers for participating in the leading world financial affairs in China.

     According to development course of Great Britain and USA, become the world powerful country, must possess several great important conditions, first, there is strong naval strength; Second, occupy the centre position in the affairs of the international finance. After the First World War, U.S.A. turns from largest debtor country into the largest creditor nation, U.S. dollar has replaced pound sterling, New York has replaced London, Wall Street has replaced the rumba street (Lombard Street) ,Make the global financial system begin to operate around new center. The status of making the country prosperous of U.S.A., establish on this basis.

By contrast, China's present weak tendency guide look but to the limit: Its naval strength and U.S.A. can't mention in the same breath, but Shanghai should replace status of New York and it's not at all that easy. However, everything which U.S.A. has now is the result in the past, not the future final result. And the world history has already proved many times, the most key factor of power transposition, how much is the wealth not lain in having now, and lie in how great the ability of making wealth is. China no longer avoids building aircraft carrier question now, dares to say "no " to the position of U.S. dollar, and determined to build Shanghai into the world banking centre, these great movements can all undoubtedly reflect its potentiality to create the wealth.

Seen from the present, the international environment after the global financial crisis, it is comparatively favorable to make as to China. On rectifying the international finance order, Europe and U.S.A. take place great dispute and difference already, and main new developing economy and China keep basically identical, it is obvious the unilateral-polar of U.S.A. has already fallen into the unprecedented crisis. " era of U.S. dollar "  Can not be over quickly, but U.S.A. has already changed unable to do what one wishesly is a fact obvious to all.

Why did the first Premier of the Republic of China flee in panic?

Arrangement of personnel is still a trifle thing, that perplexed new cabinet most was the financial problem at that time. The old saying of China is spoken well, " one fen baffles heroes " ,Without money, brighter blueprint, you speak a wild boastly, even the heavenly maids scatter blossoms reveal the throat, it is no use that that is too, any things can not be done finally. The Chinese question often lies in, they do not like discussing the money on the mesa, seem to discuss this thing is very vulgar, but actually otherwise, such as the 1911 Revolution, only revolutionary spirit does not serve the purpose at all, must not continue revoluting until being rich ---So the revolution has failed. 

One can't make bricks without straw. Tang ShaoYi as newly appointed cabinet's Premier does not have this question of money to meet too, and his most important task at that time is no more than that made the money. Perhaps will someone ask impressive one the Republic of China, how could is not there money? It is ridiculous! But reality is cruel, the situation at that time really had no money, really had no money ---If is rich, how could Yuan Shikai let the matter rest, compromise and make a concession in Revolutionary Party? You know, have been exerted an uplifting influence on the Chinese for several thousand years by the autocratic thought, always like going to extremes in struggle for right, defeat a king and defeat the bandit, the life-and-death, does not always understand what is called poised face-off, and reach the emperor of the Qing Dynasty and give up the throne, realize such result to the satisfaction of all of the republicanism in the 1911 Revolution, rare in China's history. 

The question of getting back to the money comes up. The fiscal revenues on the initial stage of entering the GATT were probably more than 10 million Liang in Qing Dynasty, developed into 30 million Liang when Kang Xi faces, Yong Zheng dynasty close to ten million two Forth Five-Year Plan Period, though there will be various that relieve the people in stricken areas and reduce or remit the action of the grain of field during some famine years, but still accumulated the silver of more than 80 million Liang storehouse (peak value in the 42nd year of Qianlong when reached the summit of Qianlong's dynasty, still maintained at the scale of six or seven ten million Liang of stock hereafter)  ,This is the supreme level which the national treasury accumulates before industrialized era too. It's a pity, after reaching Jiaqing, each, Qing Dynasty felled from the pinnacle of one's power, went from bad to worse, the finance of getting to the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom period nearly collapses even more. 

Mainly there were four items in the fiscal revenues of late Qing after the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, i.e. feudal land tax regular tax, salt gabelle, one li of gold and customs' tariff. In the period of Guang Xu in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895, generally have fiscal revenues of seven, 80 million Liang, planing the expenses still can have a million two silver left for a Forth Five-Year Plan Period every year, but compensate 230 million two after the Sino-Japanese War suffers a defeat, draw past empty basically, must borrow money(the war add military spending expenditure and borrow money interest paid, can't always leave 350 million Liang, it is equivalent to the fiscal revenues of four years of Imperial Palace of Qing Dynasty, this does not still include the Japanese aggressor troop and destroy the territory where the property robbed loses and cuts and takes in China)  . Wait until the age son is annual, those muddleheaded and careless and ignorant ones kiss an expensive once to meddle with, the result causes the invasion to China of the Eight Strategic Nerve Points, in " hard ugly treaty " that sign subsequently, people pay an indemnity a silver each person, it is 450 million Liang altogether. For pay pen this pay an indemnity, Imperial Palace of Qing Dynasty lift, borrow heavy external debt again, profit this roll to must compensate nearly more than ten pieces (because Imperial Palace of Qing Dynasty pay a large amount of silver to the western countries profit, cause the silver price of world of 1902-1903 to slump to historical minimum)  . 

After the age son is annual, the Queen Mother Ci Xi decides to implement the new policies for saving the imperial court that will collapse soon, but handling affairs must spend money, make new policies, such as troop training, education, alert policy, constitutional government, industry,etc., and heavy indemnity, which place need a large amount of silver? However, surprisingly, in so difficult cases, Imperial Palace of Qing Dynasty can be through increasing methods such as the new tax, expanding the old tax, issuing the bonds, setting up the bank,etc., made the annual fiscal revenues increase at the speed of 30%, the fiscal revenues of Imperial Palace of Qing Dynasty exceeded one hundred million record-breakingly in 1903, and by 1910, the fiscal revenues have already been close to 300 million Liang. 

But necessary expenses great because of new policies, for example arranging, practising and keeping new army need 50 million or two more than every year. Therefore, though the fiscal revenues of Imperial Palace of Qing Dynasty are increasing every year (people's intensity of burden of taxation is limited, in addition the tax can rebel soon! ),But it very surprising too '  For example the deficit has reached 30 million Liang in 1903)  ,It is the east that moves the west and borrows, anticipates the income finally, but still unable to get rid of the bankrupt edge. 

The financial one in a difficult position improve because of setting up the Republic of China, on the contrary, because the dynasty replaces, the tax revenues that should be paid originally were not mostly collected normally (even collected, do not send under guard to the central authorities either in the locality at all levels)  . So, no matter the cabinet of Beijing of the provisional government of Nanjing or Tang ShaoYi, in fact all penniless paupers, can only hate not being grown and paid the bill by oneself. 

There was a method of helping meet an urgent need at that time, that was to borrow money from foreign adults. Someone that want, ask foreign adult why want mercy of sending, lend China money? Reason very simple, everybody think capitalism for a century at Western imperialist powers do, wealth accumulation is generous, and the natural instincts of the capital chase profit, China was close to 500 million people at that time, should that be more than one large market? Even if earns a Liang of silver from each Chinese, then there are 500 million profits, it is a serious figure. Moreover, if get the government project of China, for example building the railway or borrowing money directly, that profit is very considerable. However, if the confused words that can't bear all the time of China, the foreign capital could not just earn the money, so they need to stabilize the situation alone, obviously, this person is Yuan Shikai. 

In fact, Sun Yat-sen has ever looked for big powers such as U.S.A., Britain, Japan,etc. and discussed the matters of the borrowed money before coming back home, but foreign adults are all some businessmen who is good at calculating, they do not believe Sun Yat-sen possesses qualification and ability that force the pace, demand, refuse to borrowed money its politely, make Sun Yat-sen come back home, while a reporter asks how many huge sums of money he has taken back, have to with "  Revolutionary spirit "  Stall off. 

Revolutionary spirit pieces of fine things no doubt, can't act as meal take, born, pay the bill, come on after all. After the provisional government of Nanjing is established, there are more than 200,000 people's militias from various places assembling in Nanjing planning to launch the Northern Expedition at that time, but provisional government have money give them can't issue soldier's pay and provisions, not only this Northern Expedition, it is even to have a meal a problem instead. The north foreign less than where that side go army, grand abundant interior Nu of empress dowager give Yuan Shikai force whom area deceive make out in succession, can see the financial form in straitened circumstances at that time. 

Foreign adult willing to lend China money, another important reason is that the borrowed money is the fine business of making big profits with a small capital. Take boxer indemnity fund as an exmple, stipulate in " hard ugly treaty " that only 450 million Liang, but pay an indemnity in order to pay this pen in Imperial Palace of Qing Dynasty, drop nearly ten hundred million debts, profit this roll profit, foreign enormous profits of adult all. Certainly, will someone say in case Imperial Palace of Qing Dynasty this or fall from power, foreigner afraid debt nobody of them responsible for? This kind of situation is really to happen occasionally, but generally speaking, the external debt before admitting of big city of new government remains valid, moreover, foreigners will all generally do mortgages with salt gabelle, customs duty,etc. at that time. 

 Therefore, wait until Yuan Shikai has acted as the temporary president of the Republic of China, foreign adult make up one group, bank of four countries, '  I.e. Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation of Britain, Bank of France of France, Germany China bank of Germany and Bank of America-National Trust & Savings Association)  ,They come voluntarily, show, can lend huge sum of money (interest is not certainly no the little figure) ,But demand to accord the priority to them. Yuan Shikai worry, have money handle affairs, this deliver to one's home come on a reason refused, then agree joyfully, require the groups of banks of four countries to pay first 400,000 pounds first. The groups of banks of four countries have wealth speak louder than others, 400,000 pounds are certainly nothing difficult, hand over next day. 

Subsequently, Yuan Shikai points out again Tang ShaoYi continues discussing and dealing with problems arising from an accident the matters of the large borrowed money with groups of banks of four countries. Tang Premier in and negotiations of four countries bank the group in,mood the getting more unpleasant very, because of adultses foreign not merely terms the harsh, and will assign hands and carry on financial supervision, require mortgages to assure etc. easily, then he turns round and thinks, the old leader Li Hongzhang that year by getting up is " by making safely safely " That set of tricks, and has looked for the Belgian bank and borrowed the advance of 1 million pounds in the dark. 

There is this sum of borrowed money, this just confidence of Tang ShaoYi goes to Nanjing to form a cabinet fully, return to Beijing in Wuchang, Nanjing and Shanghai joyfully just now after using up several million two silver. But has not waited until him president Yuan's newspaper work yet, ministers of four countries send one and present a note to, protest Premier Tang to ignore the priority of groups of banks of four countries, borrow from his home the cloud cloud of huge sum of money without authorization. 

Yuan Shikai sees this note, knows too oneself is formerly in the wrong, have to allege and does not know this, shift responsibility onto Premier Tang's body. Premier Tang is about to explain, but president Yuan has taught him a method, let the American minister mediate and mediate from it, return the borrowed money of the Belgian bank when the time comes but ask for a loan only from the groups of banks of four countries. The groups of banks of four countries are originally all some businessmen forgetting what is right at the sight of profit, see Tang ShaoYi promise to return than the fund, investigate both sides continue, go on, deal with problems arising from an accident large negotiation of borrowed money no longer too. Belgian bank words of an insignificant person carry little weight, dry group, bank of four countries, after all, the ones that has to submit to humiliation recover principal and interest. 

In the negotiation that is and subsequent in group in bank in Shikoku, Tang ShaoYi, according to president Yuan's instruction, demand to borrow 75 million Liang huge sums of money, number put forward than before this has another more several times. The foreign adults of the groups of banks of four countries are very shocked too, ask Premier Tang what use borrowed money will do, Premier Tang is not thought that blurt out to answer: " disband army use only "  . The foreign adult interface asked: "How many funds does it cost to disband the army? " Premier Tang has not calculated specifically either for the moment, only say it takes 30 million Liang at least. Foreign adult emerge first appearance that distrust very much, borrowed money can call listen to, but must send someone to supervise the use of the loan, otherwise unwilling to lend. Tang ShaoYi knows the state of affair greatly after listening to ----Are not the sports of protecting the way of that Sichuan because does the large borrowed money cause? 

When the borrowed money negotiates and gets into a difficult position, financial chief Xiong XiLing of the cabinet just comes to Beijing to take up an official post, Tang ShaoYi just takes advantage of a favourable situation to push this borrowed money heavy burden to finance minister Xiong. Xiong XiLing, the word grasps three, is the drawing room of phoenix of Hunan (the phoenix county of today) originally People, it is called " bear's phoenix " ,The person has had bright natural gift since childhood, the Xiucai in 14 years old, the successful candidate in 18 years old, 19 year old smooth to through will try, wait for final imperial examination of participating in pass the civil service examinations at one blow, nitpick, say examiner calligraphy conform to final imperial examination require '  I believe an examiner envies its juvenile talent)  ,Typed back the exercise calligraphy. Been waiting for by 1894 straight, just some doctorates age of Xiong Xi 25 years old, entering the Imperial Academy. Though Xiong XiLing is a imperial examinations middleman, but thought modish, agree to reform. During the Reform Movement of 1848, XiLing Xiong admonish, appoint as the premier, school of trends of the times, treasure Chen, governor of a province of Hunan, the bear wishes the first thing that the new officer takes up an official post is to invite Liang Qichao to serve as Chinese to always teach and practise age. Good when defending coup in fifth, Xiong XiLing is just in the township due to illness, this has just escaped from a disaster. 

In 1905, sent five ministers to go abroad to investigate the constitutional government in Imperial Palace of Qing Dynasty, Xiong XiLing set out together as the attache too, after investigating, wrote the thing of the study report and left on Xiong XiLing's body. It is said in fact out of go into exile Liang Qichao and the hands of Japan five minister of the study reports, and XiLing Xiong imperial court minister and roof beam, middle bridge waiting for someone Yang just. In 1909, Xiong XiLing presented the day province (today Liaoning) with respect upon instruction Make up the local financial tax revenue and wait for, break out for the moment, is praised as the financing past master of the court. Behind the 1911 Revolution, because XiLing Xiong agree to republicanism, resign, get back to Shanghai and join chapter unified party (and then merge into Republican Party) that inflammation organize very much . Being nominated after cabinet's financial chief by Premier Tang, Xiong XiLing begins to decline, but that it would be ungracious not to accept your invitation later, had to promise to take up one's post. However, he did not go to Beijing immediately, but help Huang Xing to solve the people's militia's soldier's pay and provisions problem in Nanjing first, later just went to Beijing. 

While leaving Nanjing, Xiong XiLing is very clear too those people's militias in Nanjing lack putting and potential mutiny danger in straitened circumstances of the soldier's pay and provisions, then the thing that he should be done first after taking up an official post is to raise a sum of borrowed money to give to Huang Xing first, in order to dissolve the army. This financial chief of incoming really has some skills, he is not only good at managing money matters, and eloquence is very fine '  But this point is better than Premier Tang)  ,According to being eloquent, return way,etc. say so that it is clearly and logically whole borrowing program, use actually, foreign adults hear convincingly too, promise to pay for 3 million Liang first right away, put the concrete matters of the large borrowed money aside and deal with problems arising from an accident subsequently. 

When the bear wishes the animated one should tell Huang Xing good news age, but Nanjing sends a text, claim: "Paying for the rules not only supervise China's finances, will supervise the army of our country, can bear, who can't bear? The army is the lifeblood of the national defence, how could permit foreigners to interfere to this kind of stage? Does finance minister Xiong forget to protect how the sports of the way take place? Will not know the lesson that causes a state to perish that Egypt has borrowed money? Over these 20 years, the countless Chinese persons of ideals and integrity have gone through fire and boiled water, does not hesitate to die, and then today getting the Republic of China in return, will ruin the Republic of China soon for the trivial advance of 3 million? It is here so long as the rest of us are still alive, will never acknowledge this borrowed money condition of causing a state to perish, ask finance minister Xiong to ban the borrowed money "  Yun Yun. Xiong XiLing is frightened by such a righteously indignant telegram, see who is it to inscribe in this in a hurry, but see the telegram put the absolutely clear writing of angle "  Huang Xing " And the name which a great deal of people's militias of Nanjing will get. 

XiLing Xiong so angry that take, rise from fire come nearly behind the backbone by now ----I am so arduous and foreign people socialize, borrow 3 million silver with great difficulty, what is pursued? Not in order to solve the matter of great urgency for Huang Xing? It is good by now, you snarl and snap at Lu dongbin, fail to see the good heart, have you forgotten to be how to roar urgently to press for fund in the telegram originally?  

In a moment of anger, Xiong XiLing urges Huang Xing the telegram of the fund is made known publicly, Nanjing danger and stooping to compromise the narration garbling a story by adding details one's own that people's militia might mutiny because of lacking the pay. Moreover, Xiong XiLing satirizes Huang Xing to lack political experience in the telegram yet, understand economy, say if Huang Xing on the throne what, must ruin the Republic of China. 

Revolutionary founder Huang Xing and newly appointed finance minister Xiong XiLing's telegram fight, cause the great disturbance at once. Commander-in-chief in ancient China, Congressman, newspaper of all parts,etc., air one's own views one after another, have, criticize bear wish age weak diplomacy, have, curse that finance minister betray one's country, criticize Huang Xing for ignoring overall situation too, numerous. 

In the noise of the roar in the public opinion, temporary Senate comes to interfere too, some Congressmen require Tang ShaoYi and cabinet member to go to Senate to explain the situation. At meeting, young and aggressive Congressman continue to Tang appearance group get up, ask reprovingly, they question use of borrowed money, bank of Belgian, criticize Premier Tang lose the confidence of people, see suspicion on neighbouring country, even someone curse ShaoYi Tang to " cause a state to perish the premier " still . Where it meets to be so the posture ShaoYi Tang '  Know democracy terribly by now)  ,Too tired to deal with at the meeting-place unexpectedly, to losing and reacting simply later, transfixed there, say no word. And Xiong XiLing feel wronged and act rashly and does not go to work in the going department simply after learning that pays for a matter to fall through, the government affairs sink into the standstill. 

Tang ShaoYi is so angry as to have no place to give vent to too after being been forced by this of Senate for no reason, submit to president Yuan to and resign on the same day evening. Though Yuan Shikai is discontended with Tang ShaoYi, the first cabinet collapses so fast if he does not want either to let, urge the speech to stay have to be warm, it is not rash to advise Tang ShaoYi to be slightly good, stand just a few tentatively.  

Hardly has one wave subsided when another rises. The matter of borrowed money is put down temporarily and does not mention, the question of suitable person of the commander-in-chief in ancient China directly under the jurisdiction arouses disturbances again. Originally, after the 1911 Revolution, the people of this province served as the commander-in-chief in ancient China to prevail in every province, if Li yuan the big superintend and direct there aren't Hubei Province, 30 jins strong Li,subordinate to there aren't some Congressman such as valley clock show,et al. direct at that time. Wang ZhiXiang, the people in Tong County directly under the jurisdiction, make and concurrently patrol and prevent the camp from commanding for the cloth policy of Guangxi originally, anyway participate in the revolution in the 1911 Revolution, later on because Lu RongTing takes the post as the commander-in-chief in ancient China of Guangxi, Wang ZhiXiang can not have a foothold in Guangxi, leads department to Nanjing and plans to participate in the Northern Expedition. It's a pity the Northern Expedition has no resolution, southern Revolutionary Party wants to let him take the post as the commander-in-chief in ancient China directly under the jurisdiction, in order to expand the force of Revolutionary Party. 

Everybody think it subordinate toes to be the north foreign trusted subordinate area of army directly, how could let others' sound it will be side of the bed? So, Yuan Shikai's proposition to southern Revolutionary Party is ignored, but appoint one's own trusted subordinate a piece of tin Luan to take the post as the commander-in-chief in ancient China directly under the jurisdiction. Tang ShaoYi attempted to mediate the north and south contradiction, echoed the requirement of southern Revolutionary Party too at that time during forming a cabinet in Nanjing, Wang ZhiXiang takes the post as the commander-in-chief in ancient China directly under the jurisdiction to put forward to Yuan Shikai. Yuan Shikai though unhappy, do, object to it in word, say, let sesame Wang auspicious to come on to Beijing first only. Tang continue appearance think Yuan Shikai agree, appoint Wang ZhiXiang take the post as the commander-in-chief in ancient China directly under the jurisdiction already, then sending a telegram to let him come to Beijing for Wang ZhiXiang excitedly. 

Waiting for Wang ZhiXiang to Beijing, Tang ShaoYi asks Yuan Shikai to release while appointing the book, but Yuan Shikai take out several telegram, subordinate to five No. military circles object to sesame Wang auspicious to take up one's post the energizing of the commander-in-chief in ancient China direct. Extremely angry after Tang ShaoYi sees, say: "President promise how about can lose the confidence of people already? Moreover, soldiers interfere politics, I'm afraid it is not the good fortune of the Republic of China. " 

Yuan Shikai has grunted, says: "That is promised by you before this, do I did ever promise? Wang ZhiXiang is a revolutionary partisan, if he comes to become a commander-in-chief in ancient China directly under the jurisdiction, do not invite a wolf into house? " Tang continue appearance anger anger right dish: "Appoint that functions and powers of cabinet, how could interfere and right away change at will by soldier? Moreover, ZhiXiang Wang reach Beijing already, ask I this piece how about the premier hand over cabinet? " Yuan Shikai must smile to lift, one: " but this is easy, since an old fellow like me is full of ideas " . 

Should say this democratic society, soldiers look on as and keep neutrality promptly, shouldn't interfere the politics in the country, but it is easy to say, in fact it is extremely difficult to accomplish. Unless for example whether during the Republic of China, do soldier policy have ordinary thing nearly, think Beijing mutiny, five No. warlord politics where military circles energize and reach the peak of perfection this time before this than, really feel dwarfed, not worth mentioning. Tang ShaoYi personally experienced the democratic politics of U.S.A. in youth, he realizes the severity that soldiers do the policy problem too, but he has no barrel of a gun at hand, why can? If he has barrels of a gun, is that that a soldier do the policy? This seems to be a peculiar paradox, but China last century is unable to jump out this strange circle all the time. 

Continue appearance make very passive, how about while explaining to Wang ZhiXiang does it know when Tang, but Yuan Shikai calls in Wang ZhiXiang alone, promises to give him a sum of generous funds, let him change to the southern army and declare and console enabling, go back to Nanjing to assist Cheng De, commander-in-chief in ancient China of Jiangsu, to disband the army completely. Premier Tang's face is not so old as president Yuan's after all, but Wang ZhiXiang is originally a bureaucrat trimming one's sails, he is after getting Yuan Shikai's assurance, the support to friend was left out of account unexpectedly, one promises the appointing newly of Yuan Shikai. 

Wait until sesame Wang auspicious to hold, appoint book reach Tang continue appearance there want he countersign, unexpectedly Premier Tang is totally kept in the dark, do not know this matter at all. Wait for ShaoYi Tang go back too supernatural to come, this know he superior president Yuan and friend auspicious to betray in pairs in sesame Wang! Under the resentfulness, ShaoYi Tang refuse requirement that countersign absolutely, but ZhiXiang Wang whether piece lie in officer person of person very much, unexpectedly he holds a appointment book that cabinet's Premier countersigned of having, has gone to Nanjing to take up one's post straight! 

On the same day evening, Tang ShaoYi has not slept for one night, are not knowing which way to go at all night. He at this moment, remembers that takes up the post of all sorts of that the Premier came in more than one month to frustrate the disgrace and blame, seem to overturn one hundred flavor bottles in the heart, sadness, resentfulness, lonely, helpless, really feel all sorts of feelings well up, all come for the moment. Sit cold window face in the fatherless moon, Tang ShaoYi talks to oneself unavoidably alone: "Democratic republicanism, is made by " temporary provisional constitution ". Since order of president need cabinet countersign, I the the premier very make it even? " 

Speech finish, Tang continue appearance compliment make already, by the time it was brighter and brighter, he tidied up the travelling bag, with wife and children to go straight towards the railway station directly to go to Tianjin.