The six-party talks about North Korean Nuclear Issue since began on August 27, 2003, up till now had held six talks together, but goal this yet remote from Korean de-nuclearization. In fact, as far back as 2005, the second stage meeting of the fourth round will pass 9 19 common declarations, reaffirm that can realize the de-nuclearization of Korea Peninsula verifying by way of peace. And on February 13, 2007, the third stage meeting of the fifth round of six-party talks will declare the common file that started to take action together through implementing, six cubic meters are agreed to to adopt the concrete action taking discarding finally as goal during the course of starting, it close towards side and it is would rather the facility more since it seal up for safekeeping,including after treatment facilities,more invite International Atomic Energy Agency the personnels not to be returned to there aren't Korea. However, but under the intervention of different outside factors, these goals and measures have not been implemented, North Korean Nuclear Issue is still undecided, Korea Peninsula still remains unchanged intensely. At present, should launch the guided missile question in April around Korea, each side launched a new one and played chess. Although the six-party talks has not been given up formally by each side, it is the same as chicken ribs to already distinguish the flavor of in fact, hardly worth eating but not bad enough to throw away.
In fact, the core of North Korean Nuclear Issue is not a nuclear issue, but one kind of the relevant countries plays chess safely. To Korea, it develops the goal of nuclear weapons in order to guarantee one's own absolute security, it is unable to contend with U.S.A. that isolate but fragile Korea realizes oneself, nuclear weapons are the most effective deterrence. To China, the greatest goal is to realize the peace and stability in Korea Peninsula on North Korean Nuclear Issue, do not worsen the surrounding environment of China, so as not to influence and build the overall situation at home, prevents possible U.S.A. from intervening too. The security concern of U.S.A. is actually minimum, even if there are nuclear weapons in Korea, it is very difficult to form detering to the native country of U.S.A.. What it worries about at present is that North Korean Nuclear Issue is not out of control, so as not to influence its overall situation in Iraqi and Afghanistan.
Has understood this, know the key to North Korean Nuclear Issue, just is it difficult to understand why the six-party talks has dragged for a long time? Korea has not been through the safety assurance that this chip of nuclear weapons changed solidly yet. In fact, if Korea still continues isolating and going down fragily, besides nuclear weapons, it is very difficult for it to get other solid safety assurance. And for U.S.A., keep the controllable state of North Korean Nuclear Issue actually according with its interests most, this continuation influencing the safety of America and possible in the future for it interferes and offers the excuse, especially basically solve in problems such as Iraq, Afghanistan,etc., under the situation that strategic center can be moved with the east. Two main countries are both making such wishful thinking, it is just easy to want to see that the six-party talks can not get any essence achievement.
It was still China that suffered a loss most in the middle of this. The Northeast Asia security situation has not been relieved, for the future conflict with burying the fuse uncertainly. What China does at present is to make every effort to promote the talks to hold, each side mustn't continue worsening the situation. But can well imagine, the security between each side concerned play chess and does not reach one to solve effectively, even if six-party talks reach the tenth round, what essence results it is difficult to have.
In this case, China should change strategy. Goal of us not only to want, make six-party talks turn on, go down, want, afford to turn on, should realize the de-nuclearization in Korea Peninsula first, promote and realize the lasting and steady peaceful situation in Korea Peninsula. In this way, building having basic assurance at home of China, the possibility which the force intervenes could be minimized outside the area. And could reach these goals, in fact also in China. U.S.A. has actually not positive attitude, the leeway where Korea circles round is limited too, only there is space and possible given play to in China, there is this necessity too.
On one hand, China should require Korea to realize the de-nuclearization firmly, on the other hand, should offer the security to Korea firmly too. For this reason, China should not hesitate to both exert pressure to Korea and U.S.A.. In Korea or U.S.A.'s view, no one is willing to step the first step first to offer the security to enucleate first to seem first, just as no one of both sides confronting each other is willing to abandon the knife first, this is a very natural thing. But if both sides send to, on the hand, situation possible to turn round weapon first.
Certainly, this means China's greater responsibility and risk too, but avoid the hostile, conflict even jeopardizing the situation of China itself for the perimeter, this kind of devotion is worthy. On the reliance on China of Korea, and U.S.A.'s present strategic situation is come to see, it is hopeful too that China will do this point, the more important thing is to see whether can make a strategic decision, don't be satisfied with the present fragile equilibrium, don't be satisfied with going the steel wire rope.
Finally, want, realize important guarantee of this to can relieve Korea isolate and fragile state. This depends on first army's politics whether Korea would like to change, devoted to improving economy. The unwilling part of reform and opening-up is because of the understanding reason of the leader slowly in Korea, worry about the security environment with severe outside partly. If China can facilitate Korea's safe part to improve at first, it is still possible to present benign cycle between security and reform. China should try one's best for this.
Let's think about it! The six-party talks has been discussed for more than five years, the result is that Korea tries exploding cores, U.S.A. got the reason to continue paying close attention to Korea Peninsula. If not too lighter to go on talking in the important place, the result five years later may be that really there are nuclear weapons in Korea, and American army in other problems at the world of balancing, have a reason that stride the Pacific Ocean, pour into Korea Peninsula even more. At that time, what had China got? What a kind severe situation will be faced!
In fact, the core of North Korean Nuclear Issue is not a nuclear issue, but one kind of the relevant countries plays chess safely. To Korea, it develops the goal of nuclear weapons in order to guarantee one's own absolute security, it is unable to contend with U.S.A. that isolate but fragile Korea realizes oneself, nuclear weapons are the most effective deterrence. To China, the greatest goal is to realize the peace and stability in Korea Peninsula on North Korean Nuclear Issue, do not worsen the surrounding environment of China, so as not to influence and build the overall situation at home, prevents possible U.S.A. from intervening too. The security concern of U.S.A. is actually minimum, even if there are nuclear weapons in Korea, it is very difficult to form detering to the native country of U.S.A.. What it worries about at present is that North Korean Nuclear Issue is not out of control, so as not to influence its overall situation in Iraqi and Afghanistan.
Has understood this, know the key to North Korean Nuclear Issue, just is it difficult to understand why the six-party talks has dragged for a long time? Korea has not been through the safety assurance that this chip of nuclear weapons changed solidly yet. In fact, if Korea still continues isolating and going down fragily, besides nuclear weapons, it is very difficult for it to get other solid safety assurance. And for U.S.A., keep the controllable state of North Korean Nuclear Issue actually according with its interests most, this continuation influencing the safety of America and possible in the future for it interferes and offers the excuse, especially basically solve in problems such as Iraq, Afghanistan,etc., under the situation that strategic center can be moved with the east. Two main countries are both making such wishful thinking, it is just easy to want to see that the six-party talks can not get any essence achievement.
It was still China that suffered a loss most in the middle of this. The Northeast Asia security situation has not been relieved, for the future conflict with burying the fuse uncertainly. What China does at present is to make every effort to promote the talks to hold, each side mustn't continue worsening the situation. But can well imagine, the security between each side concerned play chess and does not reach one to solve effectively, even if six-party talks reach the tenth round, what essence results it is difficult to have.
In this case, China should change strategy. Goal of us not only to want, make six-party talks turn on, go down, want, afford to turn on, should realize the de-nuclearization in Korea Peninsula first, promote and realize the lasting and steady peaceful situation in Korea Peninsula. In this way, building having basic assurance at home of China, the possibility which the force intervenes could be minimized outside the area. And could reach these goals, in fact also in China. U.S.A. has actually not positive attitude, the leeway where Korea circles round is limited too, only there is space and possible given play to in China, there is this necessity too.
On one hand, China should require Korea to realize the de-nuclearization firmly, on the other hand, should offer the security to Korea firmly too. For this reason, China should not hesitate to both exert pressure to Korea and U.S.A.. In Korea or U.S.A.'s view, no one is willing to step the first step first to offer the security to enucleate first to seem first, just as no one of both sides confronting each other is willing to abandon the knife first, this is a very natural thing. But if both sides send to, on the hand, situation possible to turn round weapon first.
Certainly, this means China's greater responsibility and risk too, but avoid the hostile, conflict even jeopardizing the situation of China itself for the perimeter, this kind of devotion is worthy. On the reliance on China of Korea, and U.S.A.'s present strategic situation is come to see, it is hopeful too that China will do this point, the more important thing is to see whether can make a strategic decision, don't be satisfied with the present fragile equilibrium, don't be satisfied with going the steel wire rope.
Finally, want, realize important guarantee of this to can relieve Korea isolate and fragile state. This depends on first army's politics whether Korea would like to change, devoted to improving economy. The unwilling part of reform and opening-up is because of the understanding reason of the leader slowly in Korea, worry about the security environment with severe outside partly. If China can facilitate Korea's safe part to improve at first, it is still possible to present benign cycle between security and reform. China should try one's best for this.
Let's think about it! The six-party talks has been discussed for more than five years, the result is that Korea tries exploding cores, U.S.A. got the reason to continue paying close attention to Korea Peninsula. If not too lighter to go on talking in the important place, the result five years later may be that really there are nuclear weapons in Korea, and American army in other problems at the world of balancing, have a reason that stride the Pacific Ocean, pour into Korea Peninsula even more. At that time, what had China got? What a kind severe situation will be faced!
No comments:
Post a Comment