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3.27.2009

See brilliance toweringly by China's global strategy

The global financial crisis breaks out so far, the global strategic situation of China seems the great change to takes place. Prominent characteristic its, China begin, face with calm attitude one's own strategy tell strategic objective of sueing for peace, no longer cover up or avoid sedulously, no longer overly scruple the noise of the external world.

Compared with posture of hiding one's talent and living in obscurity in the past 20 years, this is a great turn of meriting attention. It not merely indicates Chinese Government is clear on the chest to internal and external situations, has sober understanding to the difficulty, opportunity and trend, and indicate even more, while already international order started is recombinated, China holds back while no longer hiding deeply as before, but bear the role who corresponded to one's own capability taking as own duty.

Change described above appearing in China's global strategic situation, can see very clearly from the following state of affair.

Broad and level   Rotate and keep in order to attack

First build the plan of the aircraft carrier. Has built the topic of the aircraft carrier already for many years, but China has not taken a stand with perfect assurance all the time, or a quilt "  China threat theory "  Frighten, or oneself " the peace emerges " Inhibition institute fetter. In a word, China doubts in attitude Shangyou indefinitely, mutters and mumbles in stating, often too reasonable to make it clear, even deemed that it is ashamed to have something on one's conscience, have in the heart by the external world.

However, one period recently, especially in Beijing " two Conferences " Front and back, it begins to " sprinkle " in China ,Emit bit by bit "  Build aircraft carrier "  Rumour,it want it for big countries other it adapt to and accept slowly. At last, secretary of defence roof beam only strong to meet Japan defend ministers, in Beijing Monday, tell him China will build aircraft carrier face to face, one of the reasons is that " China can have aircraft carrier forever " . In the view of a lot of Chinese, this " reason " Say oxen really very much, all more convincing than the explanation of any lengthy speech. But, why were not these words spoken in the past? The reason had no him, just because the strategy at that time of China made a reservation and was in the defensive, have no end of misgivings, it is not calm enough to cause the psychology.

Second reform the suggestion of the order of the international finance. After the financial crisis breaks out, China calls upon many times to reform the system of the international finance, advocate increasing the policy-making powers of developing countries, but has never proposed the concrete suggestion of any enough one's own weight of reflection, in the dispute of the value of RMB instead, continue being nitpicked and criticized by the western countries.

However, by March, the attitude of Chinese Government is clear gradually, it is more straightforward that fight back the western way. The most representative state of affair is, at the press conference after in the national people's congress, Premier Wen Jiabao to U.S.A. financial security issue of system, afford to cover up at all, deeply feel and worry the huge U.S. dollar national debt that China holds. This one transfers to and keeps and becomes effective immediately the situation that is attacked, is forced president Ma of bar of to respond rapidly, declare U.S.A. is "  The safest in the world one "  Investment place.

And have incident of shaking the result even more, it is " replaces U.S. dollar " that Chinese president of Central Bank Zhou Xiaochuan puts forward Suggestion. When group's summit of 20 countries of attracting attention in the whole world will be held soon, Zhou Xiaochuan will publish the article on the webpage of the People's Bank of China, not criticizing the stability that U.S.A. fails to guarantee U.S. dollar calling the roll, the result causes the financial crisis to spread in the whole world. He proposes, should reform the international monetary system, creats a kind of new currency as the future international reserve currency, in order to replace function of U.S. dollar.

The ones that direct at Washington "  The lifeblood " 

This seems to be the careless article that threw out, initiate the shock on the American political circles and wealth circle immediately. It is Palestine Ma Israel of the president that show proposal to object to Zhou Xiaochuan in person first, then it is the member of congress that proposes inquiring finance minister Gaertner and gram of the south of federal President, uncle of reserve, with great emphasis, two people express this proposal of the opposition too.

What is interesting is, another occasion hereafter, but Gaertner said, U.S.A. " held an open attitude " to Zhou Xiaochuan's proposal . This one language, U.S. dollar market is shaken again. Gaertner causes Chinese side's strong discontent because of criticizing Chinese Government and handling the exchange rate of RMB while accepting inquiry in the Congress before taking up an official post. This time, he refused Zhou Xiaochuan's proposal in the Congress absolutely too, but said self-contradictorily that " held an open attitude " hereafter . The feeling for somebody is, Gaertner has a lingering fear, is afraid that holds crime Beijing again.

Looking at the moment, Zhou Xiaochuan finishes" the era of U.S. dollar " about creating new currency Proposal,seem to be take purpose it before London summit, exercise for Hu Jintao president there aren't words the rights, thus advocate preparing public opinion for the advent of for the others of China.

However, this extraordinary proposal, will not just start from the tactics purpose, back its should have long-term strategic thinking. Superstrong status and influence that U.S.A. has today today, one of the most key reasons, there is U.S. dollar "  The generation value that general "  . We can say, the surging position of U.S. dollar is " lifeblood " of U.S.A. ,In the political vocabulary of China is "  Key interests "  . So, the decline and even replacing of U.S. dollar, mean the decline of U.S.A. and is replaced naturally.

China disclose status to challenge U.S. dollar never in the past, first, because of having no ability, dare not; Second, because of need U.S. dollar, no need. Then, does Zhou Xiaochuan makes the form of threatening to U.S. dollar this time, prove that there are such ability and necessity now? Say practically, the ability of China is far and non- enough, the necessity is not urgent either. The problem is, China is the oldest creditor in U.S.A.. The creditor has something to say, the side in debt have to hear.

U.S.A. is very clear, China can not abandon U.S. dollar in a short time, but it holds 30% of the U.S. dollars in the world to store after all, so come from " replaces U.S. dollar " of the mouth of China ,Seem very sensitive. On the issue that like Taiwan, every gesture between Washington and Taibei will both make Beijing taken notice of very much; Likewise, are concerning U.S.A. " key benefit " U.S. dollar at question,can last nerves sensitive of White House the China one every word and action. As to Beijing, since U.S.A. can often appreciate the Taiwan Issue, why can not be often affectedly bashful the question of U.S. dollar in China?

Trend of power transposition

Third set up "  The world banking centre "  Great ambition. When the topic of U.S. dollar spread, the State Council of China " proposed " through a policy the day before yesterday ,It causes the world banking centre and transports the centre by sea to determine to hit Shanghai before 2020 years. Come, say the strategy of Shanghai make a reservation, China a portion that global strategy orientate in fact from essence.

The Chinese media does not forget to criticize U.S.A. for initiating the international financial crisis again in this decision of the report, then caused assaulting to global economy seriously, has " developed and formed the severe challenge steadily comparatively fast to the economy of our country " . Obviously, China's short-term strategic intention, lie in reducing and evading the destructive influence of U.S.A.'s financial system; Its long-term strategic objective, will set up the independently controllable world banking centre, offer levers for participating in the leading world financial affairs in China.

     According to development course of Great Britain and USA, become the world powerful country, must possess several great important conditions, first, there is strong naval strength; Second, occupy the centre position in the affairs of the international finance. After the First World War, U.S.A. turns from largest debtor country into the largest creditor nation, U.S. dollar has replaced pound sterling, New York has replaced London, Wall Street has replaced the rumba street (Lombard Street) ,Make the global financial system begin to operate around new center. The status of making the country prosperous of U.S.A., establish on this basis.

By contrast, China's present weak tendency guide look but to the limit: Its naval strength and U.S.A. can't mention in the same breath, but Shanghai should replace status of New York and it's not at all that easy. However, everything which U.S.A. has now is the result in the past, not the future final result. And the world history has already proved many times, the most key factor of power transposition, how much is the wealth not lain in having now, and lie in how great the ability of making wealth is. China no longer avoids building aircraft carrier question now, dares to say "no " to the position of U.S. dollar, and determined to build Shanghai into the world banking centre, these great movements can all undoubtedly reflect its potentiality to create the wealth.

Seen from the present, the international environment after the global financial crisis, it is comparatively favorable to make as to China. On rectifying the international finance order, Europe and U.S.A. take place great dispute and difference already, and main new developing economy and China keep basically identical, it is obvious the unilateral-polar of U.S.A. has already fallen into the unprecedented crisis. " era of U.S. dollar "  Can not be over quickly, but U.S.A. has already changed unable to do what one wishesly is a fact obvious to all.


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